Youcapper Picks: WNBA 7/10

Phoenix Mercury @ Washington Mystics

Opening: Mystics -11, 157

Current: Mystics -10.5, 157

Youcapper Picks: Mercury +10.5

When looking at the last 4 games of every team, the Phoenix Mercury hold the best defensive rating in the league. 

The Washington Mystics might be without their top player, Elena Delle Donne, who suffered a broken nose on Sunday against the Sparks. The Mystics are 0-2 without her and 9-2 with her. Even if she plays, she likely won’t be 100%.

2019 Supporting Trends:

Phoenix Mercury:

  • 3-0-1 ATS as underdogs

Washington Mystics:

  • 0-2 ATS when it’s opponent allowed less than 70 points in their last game

Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever

Opening: Fever +3, 160

Current: Fever +5.5, 158.5

Youcapper Picks: Under 158.5

The Las Vegas Aces tend to struggle to meet expectations when playing with 2 days of rest or less as they are 1-7 against the spread in those situations. If the Fever can control the flow of the game at home, I can see these teams scoring under the total.

2019 Supporting Trends:

Las Vegas Aces:

  • 4-1 on the under when away and total is set at 160 or greater
  • 3-1 on the under coming off an ATS wins

Indiana Fever:

  • 2-0 on the under when playing with greater than 3 days of rest
  • 3-1 on the under when covering the spread in their previous game by 6 or more points

Minnesota Lynx @ Chicago Sky

Opening: Sky +3.5, 158.5

Current: Sky +3, 158

Youcapper Picks: Sky +3

The Lynx already beat the Sky earlier this season in Minnesota, but the Sky are a different team at home.  The Chicago Sky are the 3rd highest defensive rated team in the league at home, but dead last when playing away. They’re offensive efficiency is also greater at home than on the road. 

I think the line may be off a bit because of their previous matchup result and the Lynx beating the number two ranked team in the league, Connecticut Sun, just a few days ago.

2019 Supporting Trends:

Minnesota Lynx:

  • 0-3 ATS in away games after the margin in their previous game was within 5 points
  • 0-3 ATS in away games after their opponent covered their last game by 3 or more points

Chicago Sky:

  • 5-2 ATS at home
  • 6-0 ATS when their opponent is coming off a win by less than or equal to 10 points

Previous WNBA Picks Posts:

7/7/2010

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