Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets

Mark Diana
Golf Analyst

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Following Sam Burns’ maiden PGA Tour victory last week at the Valspar Championship, the PGA Tour travels to North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow Golf Club is a classical, championship-style golf course that will test golfers to execute on all phases of their game. The long, Par 71 course measures over 7,550 yards and will give longer hitters an advantage. Like most Carolina courses, golfers will face narrow, tree-lined fairways. Missing the fairway will land golfers in penal rough which will make saving par on these fast, overseeded Bermudagrass greens very difficult. I will be targeting golfers who have a complete game and are particularly good from over 200 yards. Efficient Par 3 players will be valuable as golfers will struggle for par on these four holes and will need to capitalize on the Par 5s in order to contend. Earlier this week, I highlighted 14 different golfers across the odds boards to help you build your betting card. You can read that article here.

Each week I will post some of my favorite bets of the week. I will focus on my two favorite outright bets, a couple of full tournament matchups, and a couple of top finishes bets!

Favorite Outrights

Rory McIlroy 20-1

Rory McIlroy is a horse for the course. He has played this course 10 times in his career and ee has made nine cuts, he’s won twice, and has seven Top 10 Finishes. If there was ever a course that could right the ship for Rory, it’s this one. Rory’s recent struggles are tied to his desire to gain distance and push himself past his boundaries. His confidence level coming back to this course, should allow the 32-year-old Irishman to get back to the basics. The four-time Major Champion is a long hitter, and he doesn’t need to chase extra distance. This season he is ranked third in Driving Distance, and fifth in Off-the-Tee. I expect Rory to use his strengths to attack Quail Hollow and restore some of his lost confidence. Rory McIlroy is at his lowest ranking in the Official World Golf Rankings in over a decade, so I am buying low on an elite golfer who has 18 career PGA Tour wins.

Will Zalatoris 33-1

It seems like the entire golf world is on Will Zalatoris this week. Zalatoris is a tee-to-green machine who contends on tough tracks because of his ability to limit mistakes with his elite ball-striking. The 24-year-old Wake Forest product has been amazingly consistent on the PGA Tour, recording 11 Top 25 finishes in his last 16 starts. Following his runner-up finish at the Masters, Zalatoris spoke about the confidence he has in himself to win at this level. I love that Zalatoris is familiar with Carolina courses, and has shown incredible upside. Zalatoris is not a full-time PGA Tour member, but can earn a full card with a victory. Zalatoris is rested and motivated, and I am expecting a big week from him. 

Matchups

Viktor Hovland -118 vs Patrick Cantlay

Hovland is a great Tee-to-Green player, and an excellent ball-striker. He was one of the guys I was considering for an outright bet, but would’ve liked a longer number. Hovland is first in this field over his last 24 rounds in Strokes Gained on Par 5s, and fifth in Proximity from 200+ yards. Cantlay has struggled on the East coast, and has struggled with long approach shots, and has fallen victim to three-putts. 

Cameron Tringale -108 vs Brian Harman

Tringale is continuously racking up high finishes but just can’t win. I expect him to have a similar story this week where he’ll be on the top of the leaderboard but not really in contention. Harman is being overvalued because he’s a former winner of this event. However, when he won this event in 2017, it was at a different golf course. 

Keegan Bradley -125 vs Rickie Fowler

Keegan choked away a chance at victory last Sunday but continues to play good golf. Rickie, on the other hand, hasn’t sniffed a good finish in what feels like forever. I wouldn’t be surprised if this matchup is deemed a winner by Friday afternoon.

Top Finishes

Matt Wallace Top 40 +110

I love the fiery Englishman’s prospects this week. He has made five straight cuts, and finished inside the Top 40 of all of those events. Wallace is particularly good on long Par 4s where he is the top ranked player in this field in Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 yards. There are eight Par 4s that are longer than 450 yards at Quail Hollow which is right in Wallace’s wheelhouse.

Aaron Wise Top 30 +320

Wise is an awful putter, but he’s great Tee-to-Green and a long hitter. Wise is a pretty volatile golfer, mostly due to his poor putting, but he’s played well at this course. Wise has played here twice, finishing runner-up in 2018 and 18th in 2019. These are good odds for a guy who’s shown he can finish inside the Top 30 at this course.

Rory McIlroy Top 20 +100

Not everyone loves betting Top 20s at short odds. I’ve seen this prop as short as -165 so there’s definitely value here. Rory has played this event 10 times and has seven Top 10 finishes. I love his chances of finishing inside the Top 20 this week as he gets himself back on track. 

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