Weekly R & R: NCAA Football Week Two

Welcome to this week’s Weekly R & R where we, Rex and Ronald, will provide our best bets every week in college football. Our consensus plays combine Rex’s power rankings model and Ronald’s SDQL system to find a perfect match. We’ll also provide our own personal picks with analysis as well. 

Picks: Consensus Picks | Ronald’s Picks | Rex’s Pick

Consensus Plays

UTSA vs Baylor (-25.5, 57.5) 9/7 4 p.m. EST

Baylor should be able to name their score and decide how many points they allow. UTSA is a bottom-10 school. There are many disadvantages between these sides, but the biggest is in the trenches. Baylor will dominate the line on both sides of the ball by their skill alone. Charlie Brewer will have sufficient time in the pocket and the run game will keep churning. The secondary for UTSA is young and inexperienced, so expect explosive plays from the talented WR core. Look for Baylor to score 50+ points again this week.

Baylor will welcome Frank Harris to his first college game against an FBS school. He had a fabulous debut in his first start, but it was against Incarnate Word. Harris was rolling out of the pocket as his line struggled to contain the pressure. Baylor should be in the backfield often on Saturday. Harris is going to be in for a long day and expect him to be on the ground often. 

Rex’s model has Baylor favored by 33.5 points in this matchup. 

Keys to the Game:

  • Baylor’s front line will create havoc throughout the day. UTSA will not be able to establish the run, so Harris will need to make a lot of plays for this game to be close — something that is unlikely against Baylor’s defense. 

Consensus Pick: Baylor -25.5 (-105). 

Rex’s Plays

Western Kentucky vs FIU (-7, 57.5) 9/7 7 p.m. EST

FIU is being undervalued listed at -7. This seems to be an overreaction to their poor performance against Tulane. A tough road matchup is not an ideal way to start your season. Watch for FIU to get in their groove against WKU. 

The Hilltoppers are coming off a home loss to Central Arkansas where they allowed 35 points. Butch Davis’s offense should have similar success as WKU defense ranks 124th in S&P+ defense. Additionally, FIU won this matchup 38-17 last season on the road. James Morgan threw for three touchdowns and as a team and they ran for 197 yards. With the Hilltoppers’ defense regressing from last season, the Panthers should be on cruise control from start to finish. 

Key to the Game:

  • The coaching battle between Butch Davis vs. Tyson Helton. Davis is an all around better coach which will lead to a double-digit win. 

Rex’s Pick: FIU -7 (-105). 

Oregon St. vs Hawaii (-6.5, 78) 9/7 Midnight EST

Let’s get wild on the island late at night. This game looks like a shootout. Both of their defense ranks in the bottom 5 of the S&P+ defense. Each offense should not have a problem working down the field as they scored 30+ points against better defenses in their prior game. Yes, there are some questions at QB for Hawaii, but that does not concern me. Either will be able to carve up the Beavers’ defense. The crowd became more electric when Chevan Cordeiro, the Hawaii native, led them to the win. One factor that is going unnoticed — the tension between the schools. Oregon St. invited current Hawaii players to their spring game. I expect Nick Rolovich to keep his foot on the pedal all night. 

Keys to the Game:

  • Rolovich running up the score against a weak Oregon St. defense. 

Rex’s Pick: Over 78 (-105).

Youcapper’s Picks

West Virginia vs Missouri (-14, 62.5) 9/7 12 p.m. EST

West Virginia head coach Neal Brown ran a very balanced offense at Troy, so I don’t expect another 42:24 pass/rush ratio this week against Missouri. Missouri showed lack of discipline on the defensive end allowing nearly 300 yards on the ground last week, another reason to expect the Mountaineers to run the ball a bit more against the Tigers. 

After allowing just 25.4 ppg last season and returning key starters including top-tackler Cale Garrett, Missouri will look to prove their run defense last week was a fluke. Look for Missouri to focus on limiting turnovers on the offensive side of the ball as well, particularly with ball security. 

I think the Mountaineers are underrated on the defensive side of the ball. Coach Brown and his staff brought over a defensive scheme that allowed just 22.6 ppg in his four years at Troy. A battle for time of possession and a focus on defensive adjustments this week by Missouri may lead to an unexpected low score by two teams viewed as having high octane offenses.

Keys to the Game:

  • The Tigers linebacker group will need to limit mistakes and defend better against the run this week.
  • West Virginia will need to run a balanced offense to keep the Tigers on their toes.

Youcapper’s Pick: Under 62.5.

Illinois vs Connecticut (+20.5, 59) 9/7 3:30 p.m. EST

Connecticut gave up 50.4 ppg last year, so giving up 21 points last week is a step in the right direction even if it was against Wagner. They were also able to move the ball efficiently on the ground with Kevin Mensah and Art Thompkins. They will need more of the same this week against a tough Illinois team.

Illinois is coming off a huge 42-3 win against Akron last week. This should be another easy win for Illinois, but I think with the Huskies will put up enough fight on the defensive end to keep this game under the total.

Keys to the Game:

  • Can Connecticut move the ball against a more physical defense?

Youcapper’s Pick: Under 59.

Coastal Carolina vs Kansas (-8.5, 54.5) 9/7 7 p.m. EST

Kansas seemed to struggle a bit with ball security last week against Indiana State with four total fumbles and three of those resulting in turnovers. Defensively, the Jayhawks did a great job with two interceptions and three QB sacks against the Sycamores. If they can keep up that type of pressure, Chanticleers QB Fred Payton will have another long day after throwing four interceptions last week against Eastern Michigan.

As mentioned earlier, Payton had some turnover issues last week, but was able to throw for over 300 yards and two TDs. If the Chanticleers can establish a run game early, they will have a better shot at an upset as 8.5 point underdogs.

I expect both teams to struggle offensively this game and keep the total under 54.5.

Keys to the Game:

  • Can Payton make better decisions under pressure this week?
  • Will Kansas be able to shake off the fumblitis?

Youcapper’s Pick: Under 54.5 (I locked in my bet too early @ 51.5 on 9/4).

Eastern Michigan vs Kentucky (-15, 53) 9/7 7:30 p.m. EST

Eastern Michigan QB Mike Glass went 20-22 for 188 yards and three touchdowns. It’ll be tough to replicate those numbers against Kentucky, but it is a positive sign that shows the Eagles won’t need much time to get their offense clicking. 

Kentucky showed a balanced attack last week, but had some ball security issues with four fumbles and two of them lost. Kentucky will need to be successful with the run this week to win this game because passing against the Eagles secondary — who picked off four passes last week — will be tough.

Keys to the Game:

  • Will Kentucky QB Terry Wilson avoid throwing interceptions against this ballhawking Eastern Michigan defense?
  • Can Eastern Michigan QB Mike Glass be just as efficient as last week?

Youcapper’s Pick: Eastern Michigan +15.

Recap


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Disclaimer – Blindly tailing these bets is not recommended, please do your own research. The decision to fade or follow is ultimately yours. Good luck!

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