Mon. Oct 14th, 2019

Week 7 College Football: Rex’s 6-Pack of Plays

We have a 6-pack of plays for this loaded weekend. It begins late on Friday night and has you covered for the 4 time slots on Saturday. Last week, the 4-pack plays went 3-1 for +1.95u. Let’s upgrade and dive into Week 7. 

Colorado vs. Oregon (-21, 59)  Oct 11, 10 p.m. EST

Oregon will look to get their offense back on track early after a dull week. Colorado is the perfect opposition with a 113th rank defense in SP+. They are allowing 32 points per game on top of 470 yards allowed. Justin Herbert and this offense will take advantage of these weaknesses on Friday night. The Ducks will have no issue moving the ball down the field and dominate the time of possession. 

According to SP+, Oregon has the top defense in the nation. Since playing Auburn, they have yet to let up more than 7 points in a game. Colorado’s high powered offense will come to a screeching halt in Eugene. The Buffs may make adjustments, but they will not come until after halftime. 

With Washington on deck, the Ducks will want to end this game early. 

The Pick: Oregon 1H -12 (-105). 

Memphis vs. Temple  (5.5, 50)  Oct 12, 12 p.m. EST

Philadelphia will feature two Top-25 defenses leading into a slug fest. Both are excelling at denying explosive plays, so yards will come in small chunks. If any squad is going to find momentum, they will need to establish the run. The Tigers will look to get Kenneth Gainwell going early. He is the key to their offense. 

This will be the toughest test of  the season for Memphis, who are newly ranked in the Top-25.Let’s see what they are made of against a top caliber defense. Brady White has been deadly in the pocket, boasting a  71.7% completion percentage. Temple will need to disrupt his rhythm by making him roll out of the pocket.  

Temple’s 98th ranked offense in SP+ has not shown the ability to score with consistency. The Owls will go quarters scoreless at a time. Anthony Russo plays a conserative style by not taking many risks down the field. Therefore, they rely on their Temple Tuff defense at home — allowing 3.96 yards per play, 8th overall. Look for Temple to play a slow physical game. 

The Pick: Under 50 (-105).

Cincinnati vs. Houston (7.5, 51.5)  Oct 12, 3:30 p.m. EST

This sets up for a let down spot for Cincinnati. After beating UCF at home and being ranked in the Top-25, they will travel to Houston. UCF left plenty of points on the board going 1 for 6 in the red zone. The Bearcats’ sturdy defense may settle down a notch. Houston’s offensive line significantly outranks any of Cincinnati’s previous opponents. 

Coming off of a bye, Clayton Tune will have an extra week to get more familiar with the offense. He seems to be a better fit in Dana Holgorsen’s system than D’Eriq King. Tune does not look to scramble as often along with being more accurate. Do not lose the turnover battle and Houston will have a shot for an upset win. 

This line seems to be a slight overreaction to the current situations at both programs. My model has the Cougars list at 4.5 points. 

The Pick: Houston +7.5 (-105).

Florida vs. LSU (-13, 56)  Oct 12, 8 p.m. EST

In the game of the night, there are two factors that could lead to a blowout win for the Tigers. Joe Burrow has the ability to light up the Gators’ secondary. The best quarterback Florida has faced this season is Bo Nix, who is tiers below Burrow. Relying on their pass rush to be effective throughout the game will be tough after last week’s brawl against Auburn. Joe Burrow has been deadly when attempting passes more than 10 yards, so expect him to be slinging the ball down the field on Saturday night. 

The second factor is Florida cannot run the ball. They rank in the bottom 30 teams in rushing. It is not ideal to make yourself one dimensional against LSU. Add on Kyle Trask’s leg injury and you have a recipe for disaster in Baton Rouge. Oh yeah, it’s his first road start too in the toughest environment in the SEC. 

Coming off of a grinding battle against Auburn, Joe Burrow will throw wild against the Gators and secure an easy two touchdown plus win. 

The Pick: LSU -13 (-105).

Washington vs. Arizona (6, 59)  Oct 12, 11 p.m. EST

Khalil Tate will be looking for a statement home win against Washington. If they want to have a chance at this, they will need to score. Their defense has been suspect to allowing explosive plays. Jacob Eason will have time in the pocket, something he needs to be accurate. Arizona’s pass rush ranks 127th in passing down sack rate. This will give him the necessary time to pick apart a below average secondary. 

Arizona’s offense has been clicking on all cylinders this whole season. The Wildcats rank 8th in total yards per game. Tate’s dual threat ability finally coming to fruition and that has diversified their attack. The play action has seen the biggest growth with Gary Brightwell and J.J. Taylor dominating the rushing attack (over 6 yards per rush each). 

Each squad can score 4 touchdowns this week. Plus it’s PAC 12 after Dark, the game will be wild. 

The Pick: Over 59 (-105).

First ML Parlay of the season: Penn St. ML & Kentucky ML (+124)

I don’t want to sweat the points with either of these teams so I think there’s value in a parlay. 

Penn St.’s defense can stop this stagnant Iowa offense. Against the two legitimate defenses they’ve faced, the Hawkeyes have scored 21 points total. Scoring 21 points or less has not bode well when facing PSU — averaging 39 points per game. Iowa will rely on their ability to make this game a mess similar to Michigan and Iowa St, but Penn St.’s offense has a second gear those squads have yet to show. 

Mark Stoops and Kentucky need to get back on track. This is a take care of your business game in Lexington. A loss in a game against the weakest SEC school would have fans questioning if last season was a fluke. The pure talent discrepancy between these programs is astonishing, especially on the defensive side. The QB carousel continues for the Hogs and it is difficult to find any confidence in their offense. My model has Kentucky listed as -8.5 favorites. 

Recap

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