Week 16 CFF DFS

JD Yonke
College Football Analyst

Games to Target

Ole Miss @ LSU (O/U 76.5)

Ole Miss and LSU’s massive total of 76.5 looms large over this slate, and there are a lot of questions left to be answered. Can LSU keep winning despite half of their active roster being freshmen and sophomores? Will Ole Miss show signs of rust in their first game in three weeks, and only their second game since Halloween? How will they look after their top two receiving threats (Elijah Moore and Kenny Yeboah) opted out? Will either team be motivated in what is essentially a meaningless game in which both teams’ top two receiving threats have opted out? Will the weather be a factor (highly likelihood of rain)?

This will be a popular game, and a number of players are worth mentioning. LSU just allowed 609 yards to Florida. I’m not sure that I can get to Matt Corral ($9700) with all of the concerns listed above, but nobody would be surprised if he’s the highest scoring signal caller on the slate. Running back Jerrion Ealy ($7300) would see additional work if the weather is particularly nasty. Dontario Drummond ($4400) and Jonathan Mingo ($3700) seem to stand as the top two options left for this passing attack, and immediately become two of the best value options on the slate. Braylon Sanders ($4100) is a dangerous deep threat with 8-272-2 over his last three — good for a ridiculous 34 yards per reception. Moore had 43 targets over his last three and was a lock for 10+ targets per game, so there should be plenty to go around.

All LSU players are in consideration against an Ole Miss defense allowing a hair under one million yards per game. (In actuality, those numbers are 310 passing YPG and 217 rushing YPG at a 5.7 YPC clip). Quarterback Max Johnson ($6800) impressed with 239-3 through the air last week and is expected to see another start here. While he didn’t do much with them (52 yards), he had 18 rushing attempts against Florida and is considered a dual-threat. His top stacking option is Kayshon Boutte ($5700), who should be at least $1000 more expensive after bursting onto the scene with 13-219-1 on 21 targets over his last two. He’s entrenched himself as the number one target in this offense after Terrace Marshall opted out and Arik Gilbert decided he wasn’t having enough fun and decided to quit leave town. Jaray Jenkins ($4300) had 7 targets last game and appears to be the new number two option. At running back, Tyrion Davis-Price is out and John Emery Jr. ($4700) is questionable after leaving the Florida game early with a shoulder injury. Chris Curry ($4100) saw 17 carries last week and would stand to lead the backfield if Emery either misses the game or plays and is limited.

Florida St @ Wake (O/U 66.5)

These are the two highest totals on the slate, so naturally DFS players will be inclined to roster some players from these teams. Both Florida State and Wake Forest are allowing 456 total yards of offense to opposing teams, so either side is in play. FSU has actually been slightly less effective, allowing a gross 6.5 YPP to Wake’s 6.1 YPP. This is welcome news to the Deacs, who are scoring 37.0 PPG. Quarterback Sam Hartman ($6900) is still too cheap despite his spotty production. Despite a huge let-down last week, running back Christian Beal-Smith ($5900) should continue to see increased work and production after the loss of Kenneth Walker III. Wide receiver Jaquarii Roberson ($7000) has been a cash cow lately, with 28-435-4 over his last three and 30 targets over his last two. Donavon Greene ($5800) is the second option and has produced 12-226-2 on 19 targets in his last two. He missed last week’s game for an undisclosed reason, but is probable to suit up this week. I do have slight concern that Wake looked so flat last week — 21 points against a bad Louisville defense — but all players are still within consideration in this matchup.

With Jordan Travis ($7200) at quarterback, the Seminoles have become largely a running team. The issue is that Travis, Jashaun Corbin ($6100), and Lawrance Toafili ($4200) all compete for touches. They could all have a decent game in this contest, but it’s hard to know which one to trust. I liked Travis more last week and he’s been great, but it’s hard to keep relying on a quarterback who doesn’t do much throwing — last week was his first multi-passing-TD performance of the year, and it came against a Duke defense that would concede a 50 burger to the Little Giants. Corbin has 30-149-4 on the ground and 5 catches to boot over his last two — a noticeable uptick in production since La’Damian Webb entered the transfer portal. Toafili’s workload has been miniscule, but there’s a chance he gets more looks after being highly efficient (13-193-1 in his last two) with his limited chances. 

Positional Overview 

Note: Any players mentioned above in the “Games to Target” section will not be re-mentioned again in the Positional Overview, but I still like them.

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson ($8700)

His price hurts to swallow, but Lawrence is about as consistent as they come. Vegas set the total at 60.5, so there could be some points. Notre Dame’s defense is great, but they’re relatively weak at corner as evidenced by back-up D.J. Uiagalelei’s 439 passing yards in the first iteration of this matchup. He’s not a must play by any means, but the Clemson passing attack is my preferred way of attacking a game featuring the third highest total on the slate.

Will Rogers, Mississippi State ($6200)

This offense has been dreadful passing the ball this year, I get it. However, Rogers has shown incremental signs of improvement this year as a freshman quarterback in the SEC, and he gets a nice matchup against a Mizzou defense down to only three scholarship cornerbacks. The two corners expected to start for the Tigers are both true freshmen. Mizzou as a team is hurting, as they are down to only 56 active players and have given up 48 points to Arkansas and 49 points to Georgia in their last two contests. They’re allowing 240 passing YPG and 6.0 YPP — if Rogers is ever going to shine this year, now’s his chance. 

Running Back

Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M ($7100)

Spiller has six 100+ yard rushing games this year and is the workhorse back for a team gaining over 200 YPG on the ground. He’s matched up against a Tennessee defense allowing 5.8 YPP on the season. A&M should be making a statement with a playoff spot (unlikely, but possibly) on the line, and the Vols aren’t playing for anything at all — even their kicker opted out for the year.

Ty Jordan, Utah ($7000)

Most people probably haven’t noticed — since half of the country no longer acknowledges that the other half of the United States is still playing football — but Ty Jordan is shaping up to be one hell of a running back. The talented freshman has grabbed the reins in the Utes’ backfield as of late, exploding for 44-314-4 in the last two games. His emergence has caused his top two back-ups to transfer, so he should get all the carries that he can handle on Saturday against Washington State. Utah has run the ball 154 times this year compared to only 116 pass attempts, so we know what they want to do in this one — feed Jordan until he (hopefully) explodes.

Tyler Nevens, San Jose State ($6400)

I don’t know if I’ve ever played a SJSU running back in DFS main slate (especially at $6400), but this weekend might be a first. Nevens has emerged as a threat with 336-2 in his last two for a surprisingly solid Spartans squad. Boise’s defense has been good as a whole (5.0 YPP), but they’ve been most susceptible on the ground (183 rush YPG).

Nakia Watson, Wisconsin ($3600)

I’ve been burned a few times this year anticipating the return of the vaunted Wisconsin rushing attack, but I’m willing to go back to the well once again here as the price and matchup are too sweet to pass up. Minnesota is allowing a gastrointestinal-system-intensifying 6.6 YPC to opposing teams. Hide yo wife, hide yo kids, Minnesota football is on the television — but I digress. Fellow back Jalen Berger ($5000) was mysteriously absent last week and there’s been no news, so I’m proceeding as if he’ll be absent again this week. If he plays, he’s a solid option as well. Watson led the backfield with 13 carries last week in Berger’s absence, although they went for only 29 yards and a touchdown. If there’s ever a get right spot for this disappointing Wisconsin ground game, this is it.

Wide Receiver

Cornell Powell ($6700) and Amari Rodgers ($6500), Clemson

These are your stacking options with Lawrence, or you can play them solo. Powell has emerged as an outside threat for the Tigers and is averaging 26.8 DraftKings points over his last four. He had 6-161-1 against ND in the first matchup. Rodgers had 8-134 in that game and has been the most consistent Clemson receiver throughout the year.

Renard Bell, Washington State ($6400)

He’s not a core play, but it seems like Bell should be more expensive with his workload and matchup. He’s seen 10+ targets in each of Wazzu’s three games and produced 21-234-2. Utah has a good rush defense, but is struggling in pass coverage, allowing 254 yards per game through the air. They’re experiencing the natural side effects of losing nine defensive starters from a year ago, three of whom were defensive backs drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft.

Jaden Walley, Mississippi State ($5900)

Rogers has found a favorite target in Walley, who has 26 targets in his last two and 24-391-1 over his last three. The other receivers on this team are being distributed targets in a meager and unpredictable fashion as of late, which is typical for an Air Raid scheme, but Walley has established himself as the exception. 

Brant Kuithe, Utah ($4100)

This price doesn’t seem right for Kuithe, who seems to be the most dangerous receiving threat in this Utah offense. The tight end has double-digit targets in two of his four games and gets some opportunities as a rusher near the goal line to boot. He’s a decent salary relief option.


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