The UFC has given fans plenty of action over the last couple of months by putting on an event almost every single weekend. That action continues Saturday night with an 11-fight card headlined by Pedro Munhoz and Frankie Edgar. This is one of the weaker cards that you will see, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some spots in which to pick and choose positions. Here are the fights in which I see the most value.
Mizuku Inoue vs. Amanda Lemos
There are a lot of people out there who refuse to bet women’s MMA fights as they believe it’s too difficult to accurately predict. I’m not one of those people. It’s very rare that you see a fighter around -130 when they’re better at pretty much every single aspect of the fight game. Steam has come in on Lemos, but that’s mostly due to recency bias after she looked great in her last fight against Miranda Granger back in December of 2019. Still, she’s fought only once in the last three years and one of those fights resulted in a loss. There are still a ton of question marks surrounding her and her main path to victory seems to be catching a submission. The fact that Inoue was able to survive 25 minutes against Virna Jandiroba (a much more dangerous submission artist than Lemos) means that she’s unlikely to be submitted here. Lemos does have a physicality advantage, so there’s always an off chance she wobbles Inoue, but are you really willing to bet on that in WMMA? Inoue has more paths to victory and can be had at a reasonable price.
Pick: Inoue (-132)
Mike Rodriguez vs. Marcin Prachnio
I’m eyeing the total in this one. Eight of Rodriguez’s last ten fights have finished under 1.5 rounds. For Prachnio, eight of his last ten fights have ended in Round 1. They’re both big boys and neither one of them has a trustworthy chin. Somebody should get put to sleep early in this one. Rodriguez is the favorite here but either one of these guys could turn out the lights. Come fight time, I will likely sprinkle some on Prachnio in Round 1 at +850, as that line makes absolutely no sense and is very live.
Pick: Under 1.5 (-125)
Lean: Prachnio in R1 (+850)
Ovince St. Preux vs. Alonzo Menifield
Both of these fighters looked terrible in their last fights, as they both lost decisions while gassing hard after the first round. This one is mainly a fade of OSP at his advanced age of 37, and quite frankly he might be over the hill at this point. When there is at least a four year difference in age in UFC fights, the younger fighter wins 60% of the time, and 68% of the time when they are the favorite. OSP throws low volume and lets himself be hit too much; if he does that here, Menifield will turn the lights out (he has seven Round 1 KO’s in his career). Menifield looks to be in great shape for this fight, while OSP took significant damage in his last fight in May and may have benefitted from some time off. While OSP is live for a submission, Menifield is very strong and successfully defended 10 takedowns in his last fight. OSP will need to get him down early for that to happen, as his gas tank is so poor that a late takedown is unlikely. If you aren’t as confident in Menifield, take a look at the under: 100 percent of Menifield’s wins and 79 percent of OSP’s wins have been by finish.
Pick: Menifield (-124)
Lean: Under 1.5 (-110) & Menifield in R1 (+210)
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