Tue. Dec 10th, 2019

Trade Alert!!! Padres and Brewers Swap Young Studs

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We have a trade!!!

Here’s how the deal breaks down:

Padres Acquire Trent Grisham and Zach Davies

Brewers Acquire Luis Urias and Eric Lauer and a PTBNL or cash

This deal is great for both parties as it fills needs for both teams and both teams walk away with something great. Let’s dive right into this trade. 


Padres:

The Padres walk away with a 23 year old lefty hitting center fielder in Trent Grisham, who was drafted in the first round in 2015. Grisham, has a nice combo of speed and power. He has a slightly open stance very reminiscent of Yonder Alonso and has a quick compact swing. Grisham has tons of potential and fills the need of a lefty bat with some pop and great speed.

The only question with this, is the Padres getting another outfielder? Why? I believe that Padres GM, AJ Preller has something up his sleeve as he has eight outfielders to fill four spots. That’s a lot of work to fill those spots and get equal value for each move, so Preller has some major work to do. Grisham had a breakout 2019 in Triple-A when he hit .381/.471/.776 with 13 home runs and a 1.247 OPS. The Padres are taking a bit of a risk with this move as they are really banking on Grisham’s upside. 

The Padres also acquire some pitching in 26 year old Zach Davies. Davies in 2019 went 10-7 with a 3.55 ERA (4.56 FIP)  with a 40% ground ball rate in 159.2 innings pitched. He has a five pitch mix: a sinker (89-91), changeup (80-81), cutter (87-89), Curveball (74-76), and a slider (80-81) but he rarely throws his slider. Davies stuff should play very well in San Diego especially with Petco being a major pitchers park. Davies throws from a three quarter slot and gets tons of movement on all his pitches, and that’s how he develops weak contact. He reminds me a lot of Kyle Hendricks in terms of stuff and he’s a tremendous fielding pitcher and a decent hitting pitcher. Davies will add more pitching for the Padres, as they were in desperate need and he could eventually become a nice piece for San Diego. Plus, he still has two years of control left on the contract.

Brewers:

Could this signal the end of Orlando Arcia’s time with the Brewers?

The Brewers are getting a 22 year old right handed second baseman Luis Urias. He was supposed to be the Padres second baseman of the future but now they are going different directions. Urias has a very open stance with a big leg kick, which messes with his timing. However, he has a very advanced bat for his age and when he gets his timing down he hits the ball hard and has nice gap-to-gap power. He has some pop for his size and has a tremendous arm. He has the same if not more upside as Grisham. But, He’s actually going to play shortstop for the Brewers and have Keston Hiura as a double play partner. That’s a lethal up the middle combo for years to come. Much like Davies in San Diego, Urias should benefit very well in Milwaukee as that’s a major hitters park, and could help him find his potential. To me Urias is just like Dustin Pedroia; smaller in stature and a great hitter, with decent defense and some speed. 

The Brewers also get a 24 year old lefty in Eric Lauer. All together in 2019, he went 8-10 with a 4.45 ERA (4.23 FIP) with a 39.9% ground ball percentage and a 8.30 K/9 in 149.2 innings pitched . He has a four-seam fastball (90-92), Curve (78-80), slider (81-83) and a changeup (86-88). He throws from a three-quarters arm slot and hides the ball very well. He has one of the best pickoff moves in baseball and at times has some great off speed stuff, when located well. In fact, his fastball creates an illusion that it’s harder than it looks because of how well he hides the ball. The Brewers fill an obvious need for starting pitching and have a chance to have one of the best middle infields of the future with Hiura and Urias. 

This move is a win-win for both teams as they both fill needs. Plus, they both have a chance to get a promising young player in return. It only matters that both hit their potential and if they do this is a completely fair deal. Both teams take on risks here, if the Brewers pitching staff collapses they would have wished they had Davies. On the other end of the spectrum, if Urias hits his potential this year then that might sting for the Padres in the coming years.

This deal also isn’t complete yet as a PTBNL or cash considerations are going to the Brewers as well. This can have a major impact on this trade, it just depends on which prospect is coming from the Padres loaded farm system.

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