ThriveFantasy Projections: NBA 5/1

(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

What’s up everybody? If you’re looking for some advantages on Thrivefantasy tonight, you’ve come to the right place. This article will break down every prop, for ten players, by four different categories. Top Picks, Value Picks, Risky Picks, & the infamous ‘Stay Away From Bin’. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the BRKDWN!

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NBA ThriveFantasy Picks

Top Picks:

Enes Kanter: [Prop – 10.5 Rebs]

  • Kanter averaged 9.8 rebounds per game this season through 67 games played. However, those numbers are also skewed because he was on a different team for the majority of the season. Also, he was coming off the bench for Portland when Nurkic was healthy.
  • In game 1 of this series, Kanter racked up a whopping 26 points and 7 rebounds against Nikola Jokic. Kanter got the best of him on the offensive end despite ultimately losing the game in the end.
  • I expect tonight to be a little more difficult for Kanter on the offensive end because Portland will gameplan to stop him. That should lead to more rebounding opportunities.
  • Kanter recorded 13 rebounds against Denver back on April 4th during the regular season in just 27 minutes of action.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Kanter tonight for 110 points on Thrive.

Jamal Murray: [Prop – 8.5 Rebs + Asts]

  • Murray had a great outing in game 1 of this series against Portland where he racked up 23 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 steals in 33 minutes of action.
  • Murray played Portland back on April 4th and in that game he put up 23 points, 6 assists, and 4 rebounds. Which would have given him the OVER on this prop.
  • The fact that Murray had zero rebounds in 33 minutes is merely a fluke that shouldn’t concern anyone tonight. He averaged 4.2 rebounds per game during the regular season.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Murray tonight for 95 points on Thrive.

Gary Harris: [Prop – 15.5]

  • The Michigan State product has played in 8 playoff games so far this season and hit the OVER on this prop in 5 out of 8 games.
  • This means the OVER occured at a rate of 62.5 percent during that span.
  • During the regular season, Harris averaged 15.1 (Pts + Asts) per game through 57 games played.
  • He is a sharpshooter, a defensive player, and even a playmaker at times for Denver.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Harris tonight for 105 points on Thrive.

Paul Millsap: [Prop – 23.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts]

  • I have been avoiding Millsap for the majority of the playoffs because he has been playing very poorly. However, it could have just been the round 1 matchup against San Antonio that had him rattled.
  • In game one of the series against Portland, Millsap racked up 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists in 27 minutes of action.
  • He has only hit the OVER on this prop in 2 out of the 8 games played during the playoffs. That means the OVER is happening at a 25 percent rate during that span.

Final Thought: I am going against the popular opinion tonight and saying take the OVER on Millsap tonight for 110 points on Thrive.

Value Picks:

CJ McCollum: [Prop – 20.5]

  • McCollum had a decent outing in game 1 of this series between Portland & Denver where he managed to rack up 16 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 block in 37 minutes of action.
  • During the regular season, McCollum averaged 21 points per game through 70 games played.
  • Portland’s last series was against Oklahoma City and McCollum recorded the OVER on this prop in 4 out of the 5 games. That means the OVER happened at an 80 percent rate during that series.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on McCollum tonight for 95 points on Thrive.

Nikola Jokic: [Prop – 36.5 Pts + Rebs]

  • Jokic recorded 37 points alone in game 1 of this series against Portland and also chipped in 9 rebounds.
  • He has played in 8 playoff games so far and has hit the OVER on this prop tonight in just 3 of those outings.
  • He has his way against Kanter in game one and I do not expect that to drastically change tonight.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Jokic tonight for 100 points on Thrive.

Mason Plumlee: [Prop – 1.5 Blks + Stls]

  • Plumlee was huge in game 1 of this series against Portland as he racked up 6 points, 6 rebounds, 5 steals, 1 block, and 1 assist in 24 minutes of action.
  • Oddly enough, Plumlee has recorded the OVER on this prop the last three times he has played Portland. Back on April 5th against them, Plumlee racked up 2 blocks and 1 steal. Then on April 6th, he also racked up 3 blocks and 1 steal in 31 minutes of action against them.

Final Thought: This is a definite tournament play tonight as the OVER is worth 120 points on Thrive. I am willing to gamble on the OVER tonight strictly because of the value and how often the OVER has occurred on the prop.

Risky Picks:

Damian Lillard: [Prop – 6.5]

  • Lillard is a risky pick tonight because of the sheer amount of scoring he is doing lately. It’s hard to rack up assists when you are doing the majority of your team’s scoring yourself.
  • Since the playoffs started, Lillard has only recorded the OVER on this prop  in 1 out of 6 games. That means the UNDER is happening at a 83 percent rate. During the regular season, Lillard got into several grooves where he was dropping 8-10 assists a night.
  • However, this is the playoffs and he is playing out of this world. I do believe this prop will be very close tonight. I think he will end with 5-7 assists in tonight’s game.

Final Thought: Take the UNDER on Lillard for 120 points on Thrive.

Al Farouq Aminu: [Prop – 0.5 Stls]

  • Aminu recorded 2 steals in game one of this series between Portland & Denver. In fact he has recorded a total of 4 steals over the past three games against Denver this season.
  • He only averaged .9 steals per game through 81 regular season games this year.
  • If you decide to go with the OVER, just note that the value is only worth 80 points which isn’t that great considering the other picks available.

Final Thought: I will either avoid this pick tonight or take a gamble with the OVER worth 80 points on Thrive.

‘Stay Away From’ Bin:

Moe Harkless: [Prop – 1.5 Blks]

  • Harkless lands in the infamous ‘Stay Away From’ bin tonight as his prop doesn’t make sense tonight.
  • He was a block machine against the Thunder but that’s strictly match-up based. The last 3 times this season that Harkless played Denver, he failed to record a single block.
  • Three games, zero blocks, 72 minutes of action…

Final Thought: If anything the UNDER is screaming out on this pick tonight. However, it is only worth 75 points so it isn’t great for tournament play. If you are playing in a double-up lobby tonight, use the UNDER on this prop.

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