ThriveFantasy Projections: NBA 4/25

What’s up everybody? If you’re looking for some advantages on Thrivefantasy tonight, you’ve come to the right place. This article will break down every prop, for ten players, by four different categories. Top Picks, Value Picks, Risky Picks, & the infamous ‘Stay Away From Bin’. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the BRKDWN!

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NBA ThriveFantasy Picks

Top Picks:

Will Barton: [Prop – 14.5 Pts + Rebs]

  • Barton is currently averaging 15.4 (Pts + Rebs) per game in this series through the first 5 games.
  • He recorded the OVER on this prop in 3 out of the 5 games played this series. This means the OVER is happening at a 60 percent rate during that span.
  • Barton is an important role player on the Nuggets and the fact this is an elimination game means San Antonio will try and take away the Nuggets top scorers. (Jokic, Murray, Millsap, and Harris). If anything, they will try and force guys like Barton to beat them.

Final Thoughts: Take the OVER on Barton tonight for 95 points on Thrive.


Nikola Jokic: [Prop – 20.5 Rebs + Asts]

  • Through the first 5 games in this series, Jokic is averaging 20.6 (Rebs + Asts) per game. Ultimately giving the OVER a slight advantage.
  • Jokic recorded the OVER on this prop in 3 out of the first 5 games of this series. Meaning he is getting the OVER at a 60 percent rate.
  • This game has the potential to be the series clinching victory for Denver. I am more than willing to put my money on Jokic to perform big tonight.

Final Thoughts: Take the OVER on Jokic tonight for 110 points on Thrive.


Jakob Poeltl: [Prop – 0.5 Blks]

  • Poeltl is playing 25+ minutes per game in this series through the first 5 games and I do not expect that to change tonight.
  • He only needs 1 block to satisfy the OVER tonight. Out of the 5 games already played this series, Jakob has recorded at least 1 block in 3 of them. Which leads to the OVER happening at a 60 percent rate.

Final Thoughts: Take the OVER on Poeltl tonight for 90 points on Thrive.


Value Picks:

Jamal Murray: [Prop – 18.5 Pts]

  • Murray is averaging 18.8 points per game through the first 5 games of this 7-game series.
  • He dropped more than 20 points in both of his last two outings. He is one of the top scoring options that Denver has so they need him to stay aggressive.

Final Thoughts: Take the OVER on Murray tonight for 100 points on Thrive.


Paul Millsap: [Prop – 6.5 Rebs]

  • Millsap has only hit the OVER once on this prop in the 5 games played this series.
  • Millsap also has not seen 30+ minutes in each of his last 4 outings, which ultimately limits his upside.
  • He only averaged 7.2 rebounds per game during the regular season so this is by no means a ‘gimme’ for him.

Final Thoughts: Take the UNDER on Millsap tonight for 110 points on Thrive.


Derrick White: [Prop – 21.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts]

  • Derrick White has had a solid series so far including a 36 point outburst in game 3.
  • He has recorded the OVER on this prop in 2 out of the first 5 games which leads to a 40 percent rate during that span.
  • White is the type of player who can really ‘Boom’ or ‘Bust’. Given the elimination factor into tonight’s game; I think he will boom.

Final Thoughts: Take the OVER on White tonight for 100 points on Thrive.


Risky Picks:

Gary Harris: [Prop – 2.5 Asts]

  • Harris is not much of a playmaker as evidenced throughout his career with the Nuggets. He is primarily used as a scorer and as a defensive stud.
  • He has played in 5 games during this series and only managed to put up more than 2.5 (Asts) once.
  • This pick is too much of a gamble for me to confidently say the OVER/UNDER will happen. The UNDER is obviously where the value lies. However, if this game ends and Harris has 3 assists, it’s not going to be mind blowing.

Final Thoughts: I would take the UNDER on this pick in tournament lobbies on Thrive. Other than that, I would avoid this pick tonight.


DeMar DeRozan: [Prop – 22.5 Pts]

  • Derozan is averaging exactly 22 points per game through the first 5 games of this series.
  • He only recorded the OVER in 2 out of the 5 games played. Meaning the UNDER has occured at a rate of 60 percent during that span.
  • This is a risky pick simply because DeRozan only averaged 21.2 points per game through 77 regular season games. Which also favors the UNDER.
  • Despite everything pointing at the UNDER, we have to remember this is an elimination game for San Antonio. If they lose, they go home and watch the rest of the finals from the couch or the stands.

Final Thoughts: Take the OVER on DeRozan tonight for 105 points on Thrive.


LaMarcus Aldridge: [Prop – 9.5 Rebs]

  • Aldridge is a very tough play tonight on Thrive based on his numbers in the series already. Through the first 5 games against Denver, Aldridge is only averaging 9.2 rebounds per game.
  • He has hit the OVER in 2 out of the 5 games this series. He also recorded no less than 8 rebounds in any of those match-ups.
  • This is a very close call tonight which is why he ended up in the risky category.

Final Thoughts: Aldridge knows damn well that this could be his last time on the floor this season so I expect him to bring it tonight. Take the OVER on him for 110 points on Thrive.


‘Stay Away From’ Bin:

Patty Mills: [Prop – 3.5 Asts]

  • If this prop read 2.5 (Asts) then I would say this is a no-brainer OVER. However, Mills has only recorded the OVER on this prop in one game this series.
  • He is hitting the UNDER at a 80 percent rate during that span.
  • He very well could get 4 assists tonight and it wouldn’t be anything crazy. However, based off his past 5 games, there isn’t anything screaming he will get the OVER tonight.

Final Thoughts: Avoid this pick on Thrive tonight.


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