ThriveFantasy Projections

What’s up everybody? If you’re looking for some advantages on Thrive Fantasy tonight, you’ve come to the right place. This article will break down every prop, for 18 players, by four different categories. Top Picks, Value Picks, Risky Picks, & the infamous ‘Stay Away From Bin’. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the BRKDWN!

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– Our Best Thrive Fantasy Lineup from Last Night [March 30th] –


Top Picks:

Marvin Bagley III: [Prop – 7.5 Rebs]

  • Bagley currently averages 7.3 rebounds per game through 58 games on the season.
  • He has recorded 8 or more rebounds in 11 out of his last 20 appearances. This means the OVER is happening at a 55 percent rate during that span.
  • Bagley has recorded 8 or more rebounds in 5 out of his last 6 games which translates to an 83 percent rate for the OVER.
  • These teams matched up back on February 4th and in that game Bagley racked up 24 points and 12 rebounds in 31 minutes of action.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Bagley tonight for 110 points.


LaMarcus Aldridge: [Prop – 30.5 Pts + Rebs]

  • L.M.A. is currently averaging 29.9 (Pts + Rebs) per game on the season through 76 games.
  • He has recorded at least 31 (Pts + Rebs) in 13 out of his last 24 games played. Which translates to a the OVER occuring at a 54 percent rate during that span.
  • Aldridge has played Sacramento twice this season already and recorded the OVER both times.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on L.M.A. tonight for 100 points. He got the OVER twice already this season vs. Sacramento. The Spurs are also tied with OKC for one of the final playoff spots in the western conference. They need to win this game tonight.


Jabari Parker: [Prop – 7.5 Rebs + Asts]

  • Parker averages 9 (Rebs + Asts) per game on the season through 62 appearances.
  • He has recorded at least 8 (Rebs + Asts) in 8 out of his last 10 games. This translates to the OVER occuring at a 80 percent rate during that span.
  • Back on March 21st, Parker played against Denver and racked up 8 rebounds and 1 assist in just 21 minutes of action.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Parker tonight for 105 points.


DeMarcus Cousins: [Prop – 1.5 Blks]

  • Cousins currently averages 1.5 blocks per game on the season through 25 games played.
  • He has recorded at least 2 blocks in 10 out of his last 20 appearances. That means he is achieving the OVER at a 50 percent rate during that span.
  • He played Charlotte back on February 25th and recorded 3 blocks in that game in 31 minutes of action.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Cousins tonight for 110 points. The Warriors are currently tied with Denver for first place in the western conference. They know how important this game is so I fully expect Cousins to show out.


Mike Conley: [Prop – 31.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts]

  • Conley has recorded at least 32 (Pts + Rebs + Asts) in 11 out of his last 20 games on the season. The OVER is happening at a 55 percent rate during that span.
  • Conley has played the Clippers three times this season and recorded the OVER in each outing.

Final Thought: Everything is pointing towards the OVER on Conley tonight for 100 points.


Montrezl Harrell: [Prop – 15.5 Pts]

  • Harrell has played Memphis three times this season already and currently averages 20 points per game in those match-ups.
  • He has scored at least 16 points in 18 out of his last 25 outings on the season. This means the OVER is occuring at a 72 percent rate during that span.
  • With Gallinari already expected to miss tonight’s action, more playing time should be available for guys like Harrell.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Harrell tonight for 105 points.


Value Picks:

Harrison Barnes: [Prop – 14.5 Pts]

  • Barnes currently averages 16.7 points per game on the season through 71 games played.
  • He has scored at least 15 points in exactly 15 out of his last 25 outings. That means the OVER is happening at a 60 percent rate during that span.
  • He hasn’t scored more than 10 points in either of his last two games. So from an average standpoint, I expect him to score more than that tonight against the Spurs.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Barnes tonight for 95 points.


De’Aaron Fox: [Prop – 6.5 Asts]

  • Fox currently averages 7.4 assists per game on the season through 76 games played.
  • He has recorded at least 7 assists in 17 out of his last 25 games. The OVER is happening at a 68 percent rate for Fox during that span.
  • He has played San Antonio twice so far on the season and averages 6.5 Assists per game. In the two previous games played vs. San Antonio, Fox recorded 6 assists and 7 assists respectively.

Final Thought: Fox has been on fire as of late for Sacramento and is currently averaging 8.7 assists per game over his last 7 outings. Take the OVER on Fox tonight for 85 points.


Nikola Jokic: [Prop – 36.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts]

  • Jokic averages 38.2 (Pts + Rebs + Asts) on the season through 75 games played.
  • He just matched up against Washington last week and was held to 15 points, 11 assists, and 6 rebounds in 34 minutes of action.
  • There is no questioning the simple fact that Jokic can pile up the stats in all three major categories.
  • Thomas Bryant got the best of Jokic last week where he scored 22 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in 35 minutes of action. I expect Jokic to come into this game with a chip on his shoulder.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Jokic tonight for 95 points.


Will Barton: [Prop – 12.5 Pts]

  • Barton currently averages 12.2 points per game on the season through 36 games played.
  • He has recorded at least 13 points in 4 out of his last 10 games. The OVER is happening at a 40 percent rate during that span.
  • Barton played Washington back on March 21st and racked up 13 points in just 19 minutes of action.

Final Thought: Barton has scored at least 10 points in 8 out of his last 9 games. This prop should be close tonight, but I do give Barton the advantage. Take the OVER on him tonight for 95 points.


Klay Thompson: [Prop – 24.5 Pts + Rebs]

  • Thompson currently averages 26.1 (Pts + Rebs) per game through 73 games played.
  • Back on March February 25th, Klay played Charlotte and racked up 26 points and 2 rebounds in 37 minutes of action.
  • He has recorded 25 or more (Pts + Rebs) in 13 out of his last 23 outings. The OVER is happening at a 56 percent rate during that span.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Klay tonight for 100 points. The Warriors are looking to close out the season as the #1 seed in the western conference. A win tonight would be huge for the standings.


Lou Williams: [Prop – 2.5 Rebs]

  • Williams currently averages 2.9 rebounds per game on the season through 70 games played.
  • He has played Memphis three times this season and only recorded 3 or more assists in one of those games.
  • The reason he is not in the ‘stay-away-from’ bin is because the OVER is 110 points which carries plenty of value.
  • Williams has recorded at least 3 rebounds in 13 out of his last 24 outings. This means the OVER is happening at a 54 percent rate during that span.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on Williams tonight for 110 points.


Risky Picks:

Bradley Beal: [Prop – 33.5 Pts + Asts]

  • Beal is a tricky pick tonight on Thrive because of where his prop sits. He currently only averages 31.4 (Pts + Asts) per game on the year through 78 games.
  • Washington has been well out of the playoffs for over a month now. With only a couple more games left on the season, it is possible that Beal’s playing time might start to take a hit.
  • He played Denver back on March 21st and was held to 25 points and 8 assists which ultimately leads to the UNDER by half a point.

Final Thought: I will most likely avoid this pick all together tonight because there are too many uncertainties. My gut is telling me he will get the OVER. However, on the other hand, there is no telling how much playing time he will receive tonight.


Kemba Walker: [Prop – 4.5 Rebs]

  • Walker only averages 4.4 rebounds per game on the season through 76 games played.
  • He played Golden State back on February 25th and recorded 23 points, 6 assists, and just 3 rebounds in a whopping 40 minutes of action.
  • It’s a tough argument to say that Kemba will get the OVER tonight. In fact, I don’t see any numbers or statistics that tell me otherwise.

Final Thought: Avoid this pick tonight or take the UNDER for 85 points.


Stephen Curry: [Prop – 10.5 Rebs + Asts]

  • Curry currently averages 10.7 (Rebs + Asts) on the season through 64 games played.
  • These teams played once already this season and in that game Curry racked up 11 (Rebs + Asts) in 35 minutes of action.
  • He has recorded at least 11 ( Rebs + Asts) in 12 out of his last 24 outings. This means the OVER and UNDER are happening at an even 50 percent rate during that span.

Final Thought: I would avoid this pick tonight or go with the OVER for 90 points.


‘Stay Away From’ Bin:

DeMar DeRozan: [Prop – 0.5 Stls]

  • DeRozan averages 1.1 steals per game on the season through 71 games played.
  • He has recorded at least 1 steal in 16 out of his last 23 outings. The OVER is happening at a 69 percent rate during that span.
  • Everything points to the OVER tonight, but it’s only worth 75 points on Thrive. This pick is great for double up lobbies tonight though.

Final Thought: Take the OVER on DeRozan tonight for 75 points in double up lobbies. Or avoid the pick if playing a tournament lineup.


Gary Harris: [Prop – 1.5 Blks + Stls]

  • Harris only averages 1.3 (Blks + Stls) per game through 50 games played.
  • He has only recorded 2 or more (Blks + Stls) in 6 out of his last 18 outings. This means the UNDER is happening at 66 percent rate during that span.
  • However, Harris has recorded the OVER on this prop in 4 out of his last 8 appearances.

Final Thought: Overall there is just too much guessing going on here. I might throw him in one tournament lineup with the OVER just because it is worth 120 points. Other than that, I will be avoiding the pick.


Jeremy Lamb: [Prop – 2.5 Asts]

  • Normally I would love this pick on Jeremy Lamb tonight for just 2.5 assists. However, his playing time is a real uncertainty now. He hasn’t played more than 25 minutes in each of his last 3 outings.
  • Dwayne Bacon is eating his playing time as the season draws to a close. Bacon has seen 30+ minutes in each of his last 4 games at the SG position.

Final Thought: I will be avoiding this pick tonight on Thrive. There are too many undefined variables that go into this pick.


Draymond Green: [Prop – 16.5 Pts + Asts]

  • I’m a huge Michigan State fan and have always loved Draymond Green since his college days there. However, I do not love it when I see scoring is a part of his prop.
  • He only averages 14 (Pts + Asts) per game through 60 games played this season.
  • The one positive for Green tonight is that when he played Charlotte earlier in the year he racked up 14 point and 10 assists.

Final Thought: The Warriors currently don’t have any injuries and that is the only way I’d pick this prop tonight. He is one of the only guys I can think of that recorded a triple double last year without points. I will be avoiding this pick tonight.


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