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The big game is finally upon us: Super Bowl LV features the immortal Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on wunderkind Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, Feb. 7. Prop bets have really taken off as a way for gamblers to attack the Super Bowl market. There are seemingly endless props to choose from nowadays, which can make for an overwhelming experience when combing through the offerings to try to find some value. But don’t worry, theBRKDWN crew has sifted through the buffet of betting goodness and narrowed down some of our favorite props for this weekend.
Sam Murphy – samuel_murphy20
Coin Toss Outcome – Tails (-103)
Look, it’s literally a 50/50 shot for you to win money here, but here’s the thing — you can’t bet on heads when “Tails never fails” is a saying. If you bet on tails and lose, you can live with that. If you bet on heads and lose with that saying around, you just feel like a dumbass.
Jesse Balasus – @UncleJesse___
What Word is Said First – “Covid” (-500)
Sure, “Pandemic” at +300 is a good value pick, but tell me we all can’t already hear Jim Nantz start the broadcast by saying something about this being the Covid Bowl. Surefire easy money.
Gatorade Shower Color – Clear (+600)
Ah, the most famous prop bet. You all should’ve known it was going to be in here. After doing an immense amount of research, Orange is the most popular flavor among the Champions, winning this prop six of the past 20 Super Bowls. Following Orange, second place is tied with clear, and no shower at all, with four appearances each. Gun to my head, I say there will be no Gatorade shower due to covid protocol, but since we all want fun to happen, and I haven’t found those odds, clear is your best bet. Especially when it has the second to last odds among all the colors.
JD Yonke – @YonkersCFB
Mahomes over 41.5 passing attempts (-125)
The Chiefs are going to throw the ball a lot in this game regardless of game script. As I’m sure you’ve heard a million times already this week, the Buccaneers are much better against the run than they are the pass. This is the Super Bowl and the Chiefs won’t be pulling any punches. They’re going to be playing to their strengths, which is clearly and obviously the passing game. Mahomes passed this 41.5 mark in last year’s Super Bowl despite an effective Damien Williams game, and he threw 49 times in the first matchup between these two teams earlier in the year.
Tampa Bay under 3.5 punts (-125)
How do you expect to keep pace with Kansas City’s high-octane offensive attack by punting the ball over and over again? You can’t, and any reasonable coach should know that. This game has a high projected total of 56.5 and should see plenty of scoring. Tampa Bay will need to put points on the board whenever possible. They’ll also look to keep the ball out of Mahomes hands. You think they wouldn’t be absolutely thrilled if they can pull off a seven-minute scoring drive at some point in the game? I certainly would be with this prop in my pocket.
Darryl Rice – @ItsDerl
Mike Evans over 65.5 reception yards (-114)
This is simple. We’ve got Tampa with extra juice at under 3.5 punts. This has to be a passing game to the end. Tom is known for his quick releases which is perfect for Mike Evans YAC. If you can get Mike to run a slant while Matheiu is helping on Godwin, you have your short throw and long run. While both receivers are going to need extra attention, the Chiefs will be spread thin if AB is in the slot as a decoy. How it works is Brown runs a curl route, while Godwin clears out the D on a fade route; making Tyrann Mathieu having to commit to Godwin. This gives that quick pass over the middle to Evans for the long run which then leads to…
Antonio Brown at least 1 TD (+200)
This is one of those deals where Brown should be a decoy for the majority of the game. Brown will want to be involved, but I feel that isn’t the game plan and that’s why you have him at 1 TD. It makes sense and AB is very capable of getting a quick TD while in the red zone. I can definitely see this being like a 3rd and goal on the 6 yard line and Brady throwing an alley-oop to Brown. Also, don’t be surprised if AB lines up on the outside while Godwin motions to the slot position, Brown runs the fade route if he’s got a 1-1, due to Chris Godwin running a short post or curl to the middle. He went 46 yards to pay dirt against the Falcons this year on that play. I can see Brady exploiting a mismatch and running this exact play.
Matt Kittle – @mwkittle31
Either team to have a successful 2 point conversion (+230)
It honestly surprises me that this prop is plus odds. Take two big risk offensive-minded coaches, with two quarterbacks who can put the ball wherever they want on a short throw. Toss in top-level receivers, and a season that has plenty of missed extra point kicks. All of these factors put together seems like a perfect concoction to result in multiple two point attempts, where one should easily hit.
Travis Kelce at least 1 TD (-175)
This isn’t a sexy prop, it’s not risky, but it’s going to make you money. Kelce is Mahomes’ favorite target. Tampa has some great linebackers, but when a team has as many weapons as KC does, they are going to be stretched all over the field, and they won’t be able to focus on just shutting down Kelce. Whether it be a deep 20+ yard pass where he rumbles in demolishing anyone in his way, or runs his route along the back of the endzone, he’s going to get that TD one way or another.
Rex Eastwood – @REast_Eazy
Chiefs Total Sacks o1.5 (-153), Chris Jones to record at least one sack (+109)
Let’s drink some juice on this one and hope Tom Brady is on his ass often. It may be a little outdated, but Brady was sacked seven times total when facing Steve Spagnuolo twice in the Super Bowl. In their matchup this season, Brady was sacked once, hit six times, under pressure on 21.4 percent of his dropbacks and was blitzed 18 times. So far in the playoffs, Brady is completing 28.6 percent of his passes under pressure. I’m hoping Spagnuolo replicates the script, and doubles down on Chris Jones to record a sack. He knocked down Brady twice in Week 12, and its time for Jones to get one home in the Big Game.