As a team, we all love to have a little action going on various games… Being the Super Bowl and all, we kicked it up a notch with our prop beta. Here are a list of some of our favorite props for today’s big games.
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Game Start Props
Coin Toss: Heads (-105)
Coin Toss Winner: Patriots (-105) – These are heavily correlated as Matthew Slater (Patriots, ST Captain) always chooses heads.
Kickoff Result: Not a Touchback (+170) – We like this if Pats win toss, as they will defer and choose to kick. Gostkowski surprisingly has one of the lowest touchback rates in the league. If Rams kickoff, unless Greg The Leg boots it out of the back of the endzone, expect Cordarrelle Patterson to attempt a return.
Rams First Play on Offense: Rush or Sack -130
Miscellaneous Prop Bets
Penalties: Under 11.5 – Pats & Rams are bottom 5 in the league in penalties committed. Playoff average is 11.2 (all games this postseason)
Maroon 5 # of Songs Played: Over 4.5 – Last performer to perform four songs or less was Bruce Springsteen… Maroon 5 ain’t no Springsteen.
During the Half Time Show, how many times will Travis Scott say “Yeah”: Yeah (-150)
Maroon 5 First Song Played: One More Night (+900) Animals (+1000) Moves Like Jagger (+1000)
Broadcast Mentions Chic Fil A is Closed on Sundays: Yes (-180)
O/U 1.5 Yards Shortest TD: Under
Total # of Passers in Game: Over 2.5 (+110)
Quarter Prop Bets
1st QTR (+225) vs 4th QTR (-285): 4th QTR (-285) – There has been 38 more 4th Quarter TDs in the Super Bowl. 201 more all-time points scored in the 4th Quarter.
3rd QTR (+215) vs 4th QTR (-275): 4th QTR (-275) 117 more points scored in the 4th quarter Super Bowls all-time. 19 more TDs scored in 4th quarter Super Bowls all-time.
2nd QTR (-170) vs 4th QTR (+140): 4th +140 Value/Fun Play – 6 More TDs scored in 4th quarter Super Bowls All-Time even though 18 less points All-Time. 31% of all Super Bowl touchdowns have been scored in the fourth quarter.
Highest Scoring Half: 2nd (-165) – All-Time Super Bowl 2nd halves are +66 total points and +25 TDs overall. The Patriots have never started a Super Bowl hot offensively.
1st Quarter over .5 Field Goals (-105) – Patriots have historically started Super Bowls very slow. At basically even odds, lock this one up.
Patriots O/U 5.5 3rd Down Conversions: Over (-210) – Avg 5.5 all year, 10+ in each of playoff games.
Patriots Highest Scoring Half: 2nd Half (-220)
Edelman O/U 83.5 Yards: Over (-140) – Take a look at Edelman’s historical playoff and SB statistics
Cordarrelle Patterson O/U 18.5 Yards: Under 18.5 (-110)
Sony Michel O/U 0.5 Receptions Over (+105)
Will Edelman have a Rushing Attempt: Yes (+110)
Sony Michel over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-125) Game script and law of averages will push this to at least 18 carries for Sony. He has totaled 53 carries the past two weeks.
Rex Burkhead over 4.5 Rush Attempts (-110) – This at almost even money is extremely fair. Rex had 12 carries last week against KC and expect 6-8 today against LA.
R. Gronkowski (+2) Pass Receptions vs. Robert Woods (-115) – Gronk gets a two catch buffer at -115 in this catch matchup, which seems more than fair (their respective individual o/u’s are 4.5 [-140] and 5.5[-160]). Both had six receptions last week but Gronk had a team-high 11 targets. Why not take the free receptions at much better odds?
Gronkowski over 3.5 Receptions: Yes (-150)
Rams over 2 FG Attempts: Yes (-220)
CJ Anderson over 10.5 Carries (-125): Pats have struggled against rushes up the middle. This is where Anderson succeeds.
Todd Gurley over 102.5 Rush and Receiving Yards (+100) –During the 2018 regular season Todd averaged nearly 131 total yards/game. The yards may come through the air today so don’t put your eggs in one rush/receiving basket.
B.Cooks over 5.5 Pass Receptions (+115) – Hedge all those Gurley bets with a revenge game like no other from Brandin Cooks today. He completed this feat in 8 out of his 19 active games this year, but this game means a little more.
Josh Reynolds over 3.5 Pass Receptions (-115)