theBRKDWN’s Covering The Bases Weekly Betting Guide

Welcome to theBRKDWN’s weekly MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each weekend series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Every Friday, you can come back for that weekend’s matchups and betting advice.

All lines are provided by Bet365.


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Last Week: 3-2, Season 11-7

Twins @ Angels, Loss

Braves @ Cubs, Loss

Jays @ Royals, Win

Dodgers (-1.5) @ Padres, Win

Sunday Night: Braves @ Cubs, Win

Weekend Matchups

Brewers @ CubsAthletics @ MarlinsNationals @ Mets
Mariners @ Red SoxBlue Jays @ RaysYankees @ Indians
Royals @ TigersDiamondbacks @ BravesRangers @ White Sox
Angels @ AstrosPirates @ TwinsReds @ Cardinals
Phillies @ RockiesMarlins @ Giants Padres @ Dodgers

Betting Advice

Pirates @ Twins (Friday Night)

The Twins have lost games this year in which their win expectancy has been 98.3 percent, 98.1 percent, and most recently against the A’s, 95.5 percent. The Twins come home on a four-game losing streak and welcome the Pirates who have won two straight. It will be JT Brubaker (2-0) vs J.A. Happ tonight (0-0). I would look for the Twins to have a bounceback game for their return home after the road trip, and take on the Pirates who have been better than expected so far. I could see this game being regression to the mean for both clubs. Meaning a Twins win tonight. Fangraphs has them at a 63.2 percent chance of winning, but with the Twins, that is never a sure thing.

Angels @ Astros (Sunday Afternoon)

This four-game set has a few games that look one-sided. With Houston handily taking the first game, they also look good to win on Friday with Greinke, and Sunday with McCullers Jr. That is the game I would focus most on. I like the matchup for Houston vs Dylan Bundy. He relies a lot on the strikeout, leading the Angels in that category, and he will be facing an Astros lineup who strikes out the second least in the league. I would look to take an offense that will put the ball in play, in their own park.

Marlins @ Giants (Friday Night)

The Marlins should not be the underdog in this game. Sandy Alcantara will get the start for Miami and at this point, I’m willing to say he’s one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He lives with his four-seamer and sinker and can touch 100. He’ll mix in a slider and changeup as well, which hitters are whiffing at about 35 percent of the time. If you haven’t watched him pitch yet, please do.

Lefty Alex Wood will take the mound for the Giants. The Marlins bats give me a second of pause, but Miami has a 150 OPS+ vs left-handed starters this year and the trio of Jazz Chisolm, Starling Marte, and Miguel Rojas have been seeing the ball well the past few games. I’m riding with the Marlins here.

Sunday Night Special

Padres @ Dodgers

The Dodgers offense has gone cold. They remain top five in about every category, but the last week has not been pretty. The good news is they showed signs of life in the series opener against the Padres on Thursday night. Despite only plating two runs, they had a xWOBA of .391, which was their highest in over a week and their fifth-best number in any game this year. The bad news is their next three games are against Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove. Back to the good news we go, which is the Dodgers will counter with Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, and Dustin May. The point being, this should be another highly contested, roller-coaster series. Thursday came down to the final innings, just like every game last weekend.

I think the Dodgers are the play here. I’d bet them on Friday, because I don’t expect them to lose back-to-back games, especially with Kershaw on the mound. I’d take them on Sunday night too. Dodger Stadium is going to bring it and teams don’t slump forever, especially teams like the Dodgers. Joe Musgrove is tough, but not unhittable, and Dustin May would be the ace on a lot of big-league staffs. The best option might be to play the Dodgers all weekend. I am confident they get two out of the remaining three.

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