theBRKDWN’s Covering The Bases Weekly Betting Guide

Welcome to theBRKDWN’s weekly MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each weekend series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Every Friday, you can come back for that weekend’s matchups and betting advice.

All lines are provided by Bet365.


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Last Week: 5-1, Season 19-10

Blue Jays vs Braves – Over, Win

Yankees vs Tigers, Win

Red Sox @ Rangers, Win

Royals @ Twins, Win

White Sox vs Cleveland, Win

Phillies vs Mets, Loss

Weekend Matchups

Nationals @ YankeesRockies @ CardinalsPirates @ Cubs
Padres @ GiantsRays @ AthleticsTwins @ Tigers
Brewers @ MarlinsReds @ ClevelandRed Sox @ Orioles
Mariners @ RangersDiamondbacks @ MetsBlue Jays @ Astros
White Sox @ RoyalsPhillies @ BravesDodgers @ Angels

Betting Advice

This has been a tough season to bet on baseball. Underdogs are winning close to 48% of the time. In 2019, our most recent normal season, underdogs won less than 40% of the time. We’ve also seen a tremendous amount of parity this year. Just when it looks like a team will figure it out, they find a way to drop some games. It’s been hard to gauge. Nevertheless, we have a 19-10 record and hope to keep winning.

Twins @ Tigers (Whole Series)

The Twins season has been nothing short of brutal. They looked like a World Series contender the first few weeks before going on to lose 14 of 20 games. They are 0-7 in extra-inning games. A lot of that is bad luck, some of it is failing to score runs when they need it most. I’m not a doctor, but if I were, I’d prescribe any struggling team a three-game series against Detroit. Luckily, that’s just what the Twins are getting this weekend. On Friday, Tarik Skubal will take the mound for the Tigers. Skubal’s xERA is in the one percentile, meaning he’s only been better than one percent of major leaguers. Matt Shoemaker takes the mound for the Twins. Shoemakers has been bad too, but his two decent starts this year were against bad lineups. His best start came against Detroit in April.

Jose Berrios and Kenta Maeda will finish the series for Minnesota. Berrios has been good. Maeda hasn’t looked anything like the guy who was a Cy Young finalist last year but he’s still commanding the ball, is getting guys to whiff, and has a solid chase rate. He’ll get back to his old self in due time. I’d play the Twins in all three games. They should win the series, and a sweep is in play.

Giants vs Padres (Saturday)

Musgrove and Gausman should make for a fantastic dual. Both pitchers have been incredible so far, with WHIP’s under 1.00, ERA’s under 2.50 and averaging over a strikeout per inning. These teams are evenly matched but knowing how the lines favour the Padres, I would be looking to take the Giants at home on Saturday. I would be expecting pitchers duel with offence frustrating to come by, seeing as it is in SF. If that’s the case the under might be a good bet. For the actual game, I see value in the Giants ML as the underdogs.

Dodgers @ Angels (Sunday)

This weekend’s installment of the Battle of LA should be a good one. Both teams are within games of .500. On Sunday, the Dodgers send Kershaw to the mound against Quintana, who hasn’t looked the same since injuring his thumb washing the dishes… yeah. A 2.24 WHIP and a 10.59 ERA is not ideal, however, his strikeout numbers are very good, having 28 in 17 innings so far. Although the Dodgers have not been what we’ve expected, the lineup for them should be able to take care of Quintana early and get to the Angels bullpen while Kershaw does his work.

Sunday Night Special

Phillies @ Braves

This Sunday night game is a tough pick. The Braves lead the majors in xwOBA and have won three in a row coming into Friday. The Phillies have their ace, Aaron Nola, on the mound Sunday night. The Braves will counter with Huascar Ynoa, who has been their best starter. I will lean Atlanta here, but with low confidence. The Braves splits have been better vs righties and better at home. They are facing a righty at home here and should have a good crowd against a division rival on Sunday night.

Some Other Notes and Injury Updates

  • Jacob DeGrom was scratched from his start earlier this week but is on track to start vs Arizona this weekend.
  • Byron Buxton strained his hip late in Thursday’s game vs the Rangers.
  • Jazz Chisholm is eligible to be activated on Saturday. He is doing better and considered day-to-day.
  • Cold lineups that you might want to fade include the Mariners, Padres, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and White Sox.
  • Teams that have been hot include the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Giants.
  • The White Sox, who lost 1-0 to the Reds on Wednesday night, are 10-2 coming off a loss this year.
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