theBRKDWN’s Covering The Bases Weekly Betting Guide

By: Thomas Isbister @IsbisterTom & Will Rosenblatt @rozenwill

Welcome to theBRKDWN’s weekly MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each weekend series as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Every Friday, you can come back for that weekend’s matchups and betting advice. 

All lines are provided by Bet365.

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Last Week: 2-2, Season 14-9

Twins vs Pirates, Win

Astros vs Angels, Loss

Marlins @ Giants, Loss

Dodgers vs Padres, Win

Weekend Matchups

Cardinals @ PiratesCubs @ RedsRoyals @ Twins
Mets @ PhilliesAstros @ RaysRockies @ Diamondbacks
Marlins @ NationalsRed Sox @ RangersOrioles @ Athletics
Tigers @ YankeesDodgers @ BrewersGiants @ Padres
Braves @ Blue JaysCleveland @ White SoxAngels @ Mariners

Betting Advice

Braves @ Blue Jays

Have you ever looked at a weather forecast to justify a bet? Well, anyone taking the over in this series is in luck. The pitching in this series isn’t fantastic, especially on the Jays side, who will have bullpen days on Saturday and Sunday. In the off-season, Guerrero Jr. looked over at how well Acuna and the Braves were doing. Guerrero Jr. is red hot right now, having a monster start at the plate and a recent 3HR game. The Blue Jays offense is starting to click, and at home in a small TD park, where the ball flies, it could be a home run derby type of weekend. Now back to the weather, it’s going to be a hot weekend with winds coming from behind home plate, the makings of a ball-carrying weekend.
If you also want to pick a team to win the series, the Braves seem like a good bet, even as the underdogs. 

Tigers @ Yankees -1.5 (Friday Night)

Although the Yankees have not been anything close to as advertised so far, one pitcher has stayed consistent, Gerrit Cole. He is 3-1 with a 1.71ERA heading into a home game against the Tigers and Tarik Skubal, who is 0-3 with a 5.21ERA. The Yankees head into this series coming off a series win over the Orioles, where it seemed the bats and arms got going at once. Not every night is a good night to bet on the Yankees, but them winning by two with Cole on the mound is a fair risk to take. 

Red Sox @ Rangers (Friday Night)

Is it finally time for the Red Sox to slow down after this hot start no one saw coming? Yes, but until they show us that the run is dead, keep betting them. After winning two of two against the Mets, including a game against DeGrom, they traveled to Texas and lost game one of this series. On Friday they put Eovaldi on the mound, who has been one of their better pitchers and leads them in strikeouts. I like the Red Sox play in this one. 

Royals @ Twins (Saturday Afternoon)

The sole reason for this bet, and the White Sox one below, is the pitching matchup. Danny Duffy has been absolutely lights out for the Royals this year. Posting a 3-1 record, 0.39ERA, 1.04WHIP. The Twins have struggled to get going, outside of Buxton and Cruz, against Duffy, who should be able to shut them down. The Twins sending Shoemaker to the mound makes this an even harder game for the Twins. Shoemaker hasn’t been good this year and likely won’t keep pace with Duffy. 

Cleveland @ White Sox (Saturday Afternoon)

This is about as much of a mismatch as we will see this weekend. Chicago has a sizable statistical advantage on Cleveland in runs per game(3.91/5.17) and batting average (.209/.267). As lopsided as a lot of those are, the pitching matchup has a chance to be just as bad. Lance Lynn has come off the 10-day IL and been waiting for this game. His stats are also ridiculous, 1-1, 0.92ERA, and a 0.92WHIP. Yes, his ERA is the same as his WHIP. Cleveland is countering with Triston McKenzie, which makes this a giant mismatch. As long as Lynn is ready to go and won’t be pulled early, this should be a clean win for the White Sox.

Sunday Night Special

Mets @ Phillies

To close off the weekend, we have the Phillies at home to the Mets. I’m not a fan of either side in this game, but for the sake of going against the Mets as payback for not winning a game in which DeGrom gave up one run, I have to take the Phillies in this one. It helps that the pitching matchup slightly favors the Phillies and Zach Eflin. So do the offensive numbers.

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