Fri. Feb 21st, 2020

This weekend is chalk full of great games with both the NBA and NHL in full swing, along with the XFL making its debut … again. Don’t forget that there are some great matches to bet on from around the world. The last time we had a Weekend’s Best Bets piece, we went 3-3 for +2.2U. Unfortunately, on the posted plays on Twitter we went 1-3 -2U, making the record 4-6 +.2U. This week, we are traveling to Germany, where there are six matches in the Bundesliga. Let’s get into my best bets for this weekend.

Freiburg VS Hoffenheim

Freiburg +154, Hoffenheim +161, Draw +240, O/U 3

The first match I like this weekend pitches the seventh and eighth place teams against each other. Hoffenheim, winner of four out of the last five matches, is on the road against Freiburg. Hoffenheim is out-performing their xG90, .81, and their xGA90, 2.07. Based on their averages, Hoffenheim is scoring 1.55 goals per match, as well as allowing the same amount. Should Hoffenheim line up in the 3-1-4-2 formation their xG90 jumps up to 2.34 while the xGA90 drops to 1.24. Freiburg, losers of three in the last five Bundesliga matches, are well rested and hoping to catch up to Hoffenheim. After 20 matches played, Freiburg is averaging 1.45 goals scored and are allowing 1.5 goals per match. Their xG90 hovers around 1.3 depending on which formation they are employing. Their best defense comes from their 3-4-2-1 formation as their xGA90 is at 1.47 — almost exactly what they are giving up this season. Their best offensive formation is their 3-4-1-2, where it only has an xG90 of 1.75.

The Pick: Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 (-110) and Over 3 +108

Hoffenheim is going to come into this match tired and slightly banged-up. Dennis Geiger and Ishak Belfodil are ruled out along with Robert Skov dealing with a muscle injury isn’t going to help their case at all. Freiburg also has their own issues to deal with. They are dealing with a downhill spiral as they’ve lost back-to-back matches. This team isn’t as good as Hoffenheim and I think that there will be at least three goals scored in this match. I also lean to Hoffenheim as a +161 road dog but not enough to post a play.


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Wolfsburg VS Fortuna Duesseldorf

Wolfsburg -167, Fortuna Duesseldorf +400, Draw +310 O/U 2.75

This weekend places tenth-placed Wolfsburg against relegation-bound Fortuna Duesseldorf. Both of these teams aren’t the best in Bundesliga this season as both squads have only scraped away one win in their last five matches. Wolfsburg is averaging 1.2 goals scored, which is below their xG90 of 1.32. They are also underperforming on the defensive side of the ball as they are allowing 1.25 goals per game. Their xGA90 is 0.78 per game. Fortuna, on the other hand, is outperforming their xG90, 0.84, and are averaging 0.95 goals per game. Their defense is a whole different story. They’ve given up 41 goals this season and I don’t see them changing that at all.

The Pick: Wolfsburg -167 and Under 2.75 -112

Fortuna is coming into this match eyeing three points in hopes of getting out of the relegation zone before it’s too late. Both of these teams leave much to be desired, but I think Wolfsburg still has enough skill to squeak a victory over Fortuna, despite the fact that they are not what they were in the beginning of the season. Fortuna has four players out with injuries in this match which will help seal their defeat this weekend.

*All wagers are placed by shopping the best lines available to me. Please shop around for the best lines available. If a wager is at plus odds one unit will be risked. If it is at minus odds the wager will be to win one unit. Best of luck if you tail any of these. Follow @the_BRKDWN on Twitter and all other social media platforms. Stay tuned to us as we will be producing more and more soccer content as the season moves on.

Best Bets Year-To-Date

Premier League 0-0-0 0U

Serie A 3-4-0 1.2U

La Liga 0-0-0 0U

Bundesliga 1-0-0 1U

Ligue 1 0-2-0 -2U

MLS 0-0-0 0U