Welcome, one and all, into Season 2 of ‘The Dumb Brain’! I believe the title speaks for itself. For the last few years, I have been unable to follow hard data and analytics backing a gambling pick for one simple reason — my dumb brain gets in the way.
I’ve never been able to follow the advice of “gambling experts” and their data simply because this is gambling. If you don’t feel a pick in your gut or believe in it, why take it?
Each week for the rest of the season, I’ll give you my card for the upcoming Saturday, and occasionally Sunday, slate and my dumb brain’s reasoning behind each pick. If you feel these picks too, follow them with me, or fade me if you’d like — *hint* there’s a reason this is called the dumb brain.
These picks will generally cover the bigger games of the weekend because, quite frankly, I don’t really give a damn about the irrelevant teams of the CFB world. However, we won’t be too picky with everything going on this year.
Week 9 Recap (9-4-0)
We finally did it folks! I felt good going into last weekend and it doesn’t get any better than starting things off with an easy double winner on a Friday night. It was our best weekend of the year without a doubt, so time to ride that momentum into this week.
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Season 2, Week 10 (Dumb Brain To Date: 132-119-0, +2 units)
The coco is coming back with a vengeance this week and has already taken several big games off the slate for the weekend. Nevertheless, we’ll make due, even with the shitty slate. So, without further adieu, let’s get into the card. **Lines and games subject to change after publication.
Iowa (-3.5) at Minnesota O/U 58, Friday 7:00 EST, Fox Sports 1
Lock of the Week Pick: OVER 58. Minnesota’s defense has been atrocious on the year thus far, but their offense has been able to put up plenty of points themselves. Iowa seemed to find some groove on offense last week and I can see it carrying into this week.
East Carolina (+27.5) at #7 Cincinnati O/U 56, Friday 7:30 EST, ESPN2
The Pick: Cincinnati -27.5. I’m riding Cincy until they don’t cover at this point. They are absolutely dismantling every team they face and look to be running away with the AAC. Don’t let the big number scare you off this one.
#9 Miami (+2) at Virginia Tech O/U 67.5, Noon EST, ESPN
The Picks: Virginia Tech -2. I know it was a horrible pick last week, but I’m going back to the well with Tech this weekend. The line stinks to high hell, and with the public hammering Miami (62 percent), I’ll play contrarian and stick with the home favorite.
#10 Indiana (-7) at Michigan State O/U 51.5, Noon EST, ABC
The Pick: OVER 51.5. I’m not sure what to make of Michigan State to this point in the season, but I know they are capable of giving up plenty of points. The #TopTIndiana movement is real and their offense has been hot to start the season. Easy over.
South Carolina (+12.5) at Ole Miss O/U 71, 7:30 EST, SEC Network
The Pick: Ole Miss -12.5. South Carolina seems to have pretty much quit on the season and their defense is giving up yards and points at will. The only thing that concerns me is the Ole Miss defense, but I like the Rebs at any number under -14.5.
The Masters, ESPN/CBS
Now, none of these picks will be on the official card, but I couldn’t write a gambling column for the weekend slate and forget about the biggest golf tournament of the year. So, here’s the Dumb Brain’s inaugural Master’s card:
Chargers (+2.5) at Dolphins O/U 48.5, 4:05 EST, CBS
The Pick: OVER 48.5. The Dolphins defense came back down the earth a little last week, allowing 31 to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. I refuse to bet on any spread in a Chargers game anymore, but I trust this can be a nice shootout between two rookie sensations in Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa.
Bills (+2) at Cardinals O/U 56.5, 4:05 EST, CBS
The Pick: OVER 56.5. The Bills offense seemed to turn things around against Seattle last week and Josh Allen looked like the MVP candidate from earlier this season. Tua and the Dolphins could do whatever they wanted last week against the Cardinals defense and I expect that trend to continue.
Bengals (+7) at Steelers O/U 45.5, 4:25 EST, FOX
The Pick: UNDER 45.5. I don’t trust the Bengals offensive line against the Steelers defensive front and quite frankly, I’m worried about the safety and well being of Joe Burrow. I could see this one playing out like the Ravens/Bengals game a couple weeks ago with very little points being scored either way.
Seahawks (+1.5) at Rams O/U 55, 4:25 EST, FOX
The Pick: OVER 55. Take Seahawks overs. Doesn’t matter the number because this passing defense is historically bad. Blind bet and lock it in.
That will complete the card for this week. May the odds be ever in your favor, and let’s go win some money folks. See y’all next week.