Welcome, one and all, into Season 2 of ‘The Dumb Brain’! I believe the title speaks for itself. For the last few years, I have been unable to follow hard data and analytics backing a gambling pick for one simple reason — my dumb brain gets in the way.
I’ve never been able to follow the advice of “gambling experts” and their data simply because this is gambling. If you don’t feel a pick in your gut or believe in it, why take it?
Each week for the rest of the season, I’ll give you my card for the upcoming Saturday, and occasionally Sunday, slate and my dumb brain’s reasoning behind each pick. If you feel these picks too, follow them with me, or fade me if you’d like — *hint* there’s a reason this is called the dumb brain.
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Season 2, Super Bowl LV (Dumb Brain To Date: 168-153-3 +0.7 units)
Merry Christmas, fellow degenerates! Super Bowl Sunday has finally — and thankfully — arrived, which also means the arrival of the first of two degenerate holidays of the calendar year.
From the coin flip to Gatorade shower, and a great football game in between, I’ll have all the props and lines covered for you as we approach the big game! So, without further adieu, let’s get into the card. **Lines subject to change after publication.
Super Bowl LV: Chiefs (-3) vs. Bucs O/U 56.5, 6:30 EST, CBS
The Picks: Chiefs -3 and OVER 56.5. Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady in a showdown of the GOAT against the upcoming challenger, blah, blah, blah. You’ve heard this game broken down by everyone more important than me. It’s two of the best quarterbacks to play the game against not great defenses, so take the over and go with the better quarterback at the moment. Grab numerous plates of appetizers and enjoy the game!
Coin Toss Outcome — Heads/Tails (-103)
The Pick: Tails (-103). Look, it’s literally a 50/50 shot for you to win money here, but here’s the thing — you can’t bet on heads when “Tails never fails” is a saying. If you bet on tails and lose, you can live with that. If you bet on heads and lose with that saying around, you just feel like a dumbass. Tails winning six of the last seven years has me a little nervous, but it won’t scare me off the pick.
Coin Toss Winner — Bucs/Chiefs (-106)
The Pick: Bucs (-106). As you can clearly see in the graphic above, the NFC has won the coin toss 12 of the last 15 years, so I’ll ride with the trend in this one.
Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts — o40.5 (-134) / u40.5 (+108)
The Pick: OVER 40.5 (-134). Not the most valuable pick, but I’m stealing this from my guy JD Yonke (@YonkersCFB on Twitter) in our squad prop piece released earlier this week. Mahomes attempted 49 in the matchup with the Bucs earlier this year in Week 12 and I think Andy Reid will put the ball in his hands most of the game to go back-to-back.
Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards — o92.5 (-125) / u92.5 (+101) and Receptions — o7.5 (+110) / u7.5 (-137)
The Picks: OVER 92.5 (-125) and OVER 7.5 (+110). Hill exploded in the aforementioned Week 12 matchup with 13 receptions for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s a human-joystick on the field and always able to get some good YAC with each reception. I don’t see him with another explosive performance, but I’d be shocked if the Bucs kept him under 100 yards.
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards — o94.5 (-141) / u94.5 (+114) and Receptions — o8.5 (+110) / u8.5 (-136)
The Picks: OVER 94.5 (-141) and OVER 8.5 (+110). Kelce hasn’t been kept under 100 yards the entire postseason and I don’t see the Bucs managing this one either. I also expect a lot of quick, underneath passes his way with Eric Fisher now out for the game.
Leonard Fournette — Anytime TD Scorer
The Pick: Yes (+120). Playoff Lenny has emerged as the lead back in the Bucs playoff run and he has six touchdowns in six career playoff games thus far. I don’t know if we get the exciting, long run from his LSU days, but I could certainly see him punching one in from inside the 5-yard line.
The Pick: Orange (+125). The Chiefs showered Andy Reid with orange Gatorade last year in the Super Bowl, so maybe they keep the color the same for superstitious reasons? I’d also throw Blue (+700) out there as that was the last two colors dumped when Brady one a Super Bowl, so if you’re backing the Bucs, sprinkle a little there too.
That will complete our final card of the year! May the odds be ever in your favor, and let’s go win some money folks. See y’all next season!