Happy Super Bowl folks, and welcome back into ‘The Dumb Brain’! For those of you joining us for the first time, I believe the title speaks for itself. For the last few years, I have been unable to follow hard data and analytics backing a gambling pick for one simple reason — my dumb brain gets in the way.
I’ve never been able to follow the advice of “gambling experts” and their data simply because this is gambling. If you don’t feel a pick in your gut or believe in it, why take it?
Super Bowl Sunday is like Christmas morning for us degenerate gamblers. I will never get tired of explaining my bets to relatives who have absolutely no idea how gambling works. The look of disgust on their faces when I tell them I bet on the coin toss will forever be priceless.
Enough rambling, we’ve got a big card for this Super Sunday, so let’s get into it.
Super Bowl Picks (College Football Season: 86-71-0, +8.2 units)
San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs O/U 53.5, 6:30 EST, FOX
The Picks: Chiefs -1.5 and OVER 53.5. In big games like the Super Bowl or a National Championship at the college level, it always feels like it comes down to who has the better quarterback. While neither of these quarterbacks have taken snaps in a prior Super Bowl, Mahomes has looked great in big games and showed how special he could be in the last two AFC Championship games.
As good as Mahomes looked against the Titans, I was most impressed by the Kansas City defense and their ability to slow down Derrick Henry for most of the game and hold him to 69 (nice) yards.
Tyrann Mathieu has filled the void left by the departure of Eric Berry and he is now the undisputed leader of this defense. If they can slow down the San Francisco stable of running backs, the Chiefs will be in a great position to bring home their first Super Bowl championship in 50 years.
Super Bowl Props
Coin Toss: Tails (-103). You’ve been told your whole life “tails never fails,” so don’t overthink this one when it could actually win you some money.
National Anthem: UNDER 2:01 (+115). Before I watched her prior performance of the anthem in the World Series, I was all-in on the over here. The World Series performance came in around the 1:58 mark, so I’ll ride with history on this one, but it’s going to come down to that final note.
Gatorade Color: Red (+300). Purple has jumped out as the heavy-favorite at -137, so I’ll take the value pick here. Both of these teams are red, so I like my chances from either team winning.
First team to score: Kansas City (-125). I’m hoping the Chiefs receive the kick and take it down the field, only to stall out and settle for a field goal because I have Raheem Mostert as the first touchdown scorer (+650).
Total Receptions: Damien Williams OVER 3.5 (-106) and Deebo Samuel OVER 4.5 (+125). If this one turns into a shootout, I think both of these guys could hit the over on their reception totals, along with many others.
Total Passing Yards: Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 240.5 (-112). I don’t know how well San Fran will be able to run the ball against this Chiefs defense that shut down Derrick Henry. Jimmy G will have to be the hero in this one and maybe throw more than eight passes.
Total Sacks: Terrell Suggs OVER 0.5 (+250). This one is just a shot in the dark. This could very well be Suggs’ last game, I think he’ll be motivated to make a big play at some point in the game.
Well, that will complete the card for this Super Bowl Sunday. May the gambling gods be kind, and let’s go win some money folks.
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