Welcome, one and all, into Season 2 of ‘The Dumb Brain’! I believe the title speaks for itself. For the last few years, I have been unable to follow hard data and analytics backing a gambling pick for one simple reason — my dumb brain gets in the way.
I’ve never been able to follow the advice of “gambling experts” and their data simply because this is gambling. If you don’t feel a pick in your gut or believe in it, why take it?
Each week for the rest of the season, I’ll give you my card for the upcoming Saturday, and occasionally Sunday, slate and my dumb brain’s reasoning behind each pick. If you feel these picks too, follow them with me, or fade me if you’d like — *hint* there’s a reason this is called the dumb brain.
These picks will generally cover the bigger games of the weekend because, quite frankly, I don’t really give a damn about the irrelevant teams of the CFB world. However, we won’t be too picky with everything going on this year.
Week 4 Recap (7-2-0)
It was another profitable week for all us Brainiacs. I feel like a shooter coming out of a slump after seeing a few college bets hit. Florida should have covered, but the safety at the end of the TCU/Texas game was a gift from the gambling gods, so I digress. Let’s keep the momentum and profits rolling into this weekend.
Season 2, Week 5 (Dumb Brain To Date: 103-83-0, +11.6 units)
I am LOVING the board this weekend. It feels like a real college football slate, with big rivalries and marquee matchups taking place throughout the day. The NFL slate doesn’t feel quite as good with all the negative Covid news, but alas, we will press onward. So, without further adieu, let’s get into the card. **Lines subject to change after publication.
#4 Florida Gators (-6.5) at #21 Texas A&M O/U 57, Noon EST, ESPN
The Pick: OVER 57. Florida has one of the most high-powered offenses in the country behind the Kyles, and they are showing no signs of slowing down. On the other side, I think an Alabama wide receiver just scored another 80-yard touchdown on A&M’s sorry defense. I’d lean Florida with the spread here because A&M can’t beat good teams, but feel confident in the over in College Station.
#22 Texas (+2.5) vs. Oklahoma O/U 72, Noon EST, FOX
The Picks: Texas +2.5 and OVER 72. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Red River Shootout with both teams coming in lacking any want to play defense? How can you not take the over?! I don’t love the spread, but Tom Herman’s record as an underdog is too good to ignore at this point.
#17 LSU (-14) at Missouri O/U 55, Noon EST, SEC Network Alternate
The Pick: LSU -14. This is a weird one. After being moved from Baton Rouge at 8:00 CST to Columbia at 11:00 a.m. CST, the line has dropped from LSU -20.5 to -14. Missouri has done nothing this year besides get beaten down and I don’t expect much to change this week. With LSU going to the Swamp next weekend, I expect them to get in and get out with a relatively easy win.
Texas Tech (+12.5) at #24 Iowa State O/U 64.5, 3:30 EST, ABC
The Picks: Texas Tech +12.5 and OVER 64.5. There’s only two certainties in the Big XII this year and it’s that everyone is scoring a lot of points and it’s total anarchy. Both of these teams have given up 30+ points in every game this season and Iowa State is in a huge let-down spot.
#14 Tennessee (+12.5) at #3 Georgia O/U 42.5, 3:30 EST, CBS
The Pick: Tennessee +12.5. I hate to say it, but *looks left, looks right, whispers* I might be drinking the Tennessee Kool-Aid this year. At least to this point, they look good and I’m not totally convinced with Georgia’s win against Auburn. Georgia wins, but I think it’ll stay within single digits.
#2 Alabama (-23.5) at Ole Miss O/U 70.5, 6:00 EST, ESPN
The Pick: OVER 70.5. Ole Miss might be the most entertaining team to watch in the SEC this year with Lane Kiffin calling the offense, and they don’t want to play any defense. Mac Jones and co. are fresh off a 52-point performance against A&M and I see another 50-burger coming this week.
#7 Miami (+14) at #1 Clemson O/U 63, 7:30 EST, ABC
The Pick: OVER 63. Ah, Clemson’s first of two tests on the season. D’Eriq King has looked like the star he was billed as thus far, but hasn’t shown it on the big stage quite yet. I don’t put much chance in them winning or keeping it close necessarily, but think they put up enough points to push it over.
Panthers (+1.5) at Falcons O/U 54.5, 1:00 EST, FOX
The Pick: OVER 54.5. Despite the loss on Monday night, I cannot quit Falcons overs. The defense — and franchise for that matter — is in shambles. The Panthers are coming in hot, and I think we’ll see a good ole-fashioned NFC South shootout.
Giants (+9.5) at Cowboys O/U 54, 4:25 EST, CBS
The Pick: OVER 54. I hate this pick. I hate it with every fiber of my being. However, I cannot quit Cowboys overs because they have given me no reason to quit them. Enjoy the ride until it ends.
Vikings (+7) at Seahawks O/U 57.5, 8:20 EST, NBC
The Picks: Seahawks OVER 57.5. Neither team has the defense they thought they would coming into the season. MVP frontrunner Russell Wilson is finally cooking and could see his offense hanging 40+ in a Sunday Night stinker against the Vikings.
That will complete the card for this week. May the odds be ever in your favor, and let’s go win some money folks. See y’all next week.
If College Football means anything to you in any way, you absolutely need to be joining the movement with ExpandTheBoxscore.com. The most bang for your buck with the most stats you could find. The tool you should not be without! Sign up now with our code “theBRKDWN” and receive 10% off.