Welcome, one and all, into Season 2 of ‘The Dumb Brain’! I believe the title speaks for itself. For the last few years, I have been unable to follow hard data and analytics backing a gambling pick for one simple reason — my dumb brain gets in the way.
I’ve never been able to follow the advice of “gambling experts” and their data simply because this is gambling. If you don’t feel a pick in your gut or believe in it, why take it?
Each week for the rest of the season, I’ll give you my card for the upcoming Saturday, and occasionally Sunday, slate and my dumb brain’s reasoning behind each pick. If you feel these picks too, follow them with me, or fade me if you’d like — *hint* there’s a reason this is called the dumb brain.
These picks will generally cover the bigger games of the weekend because, quite frankly, I don’t really give a damn about the irrelevant teams of the CFB world. However, we won’t be too picky with everything going on this year.
Week 10 Recap (4-5-0)
Of course, just when we take a step forward, we have to take a step back with a losing week. I am once again in the spot where I’m not bad enough to fade and not good enough to tail. But, I’ll try to get the groove back this week.
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Season 2, Week 11 (Dumb Brain To Date: 136-124-0, +0.65 units)
Well folks, I said last week that the coco was coming back with a vengeance. Apparently the virus didn’t like that, so it reared its ugly head in my direction and sucker punched me on Friday morning. I’m just hoping the taste doesn’t go before Thanksgiving, but I digress. So, without further adieu, let’s get into the card. **Lines and games subject to change after publication.
Purdue (-3) at Minnesota O/U 60.5, Friday 7:30 EST, Big Ten Network
The Pick: Purdue -3. Minnesota and Penn State are trying their best to beat each other for the most disappointing season in the B1G this year. I’m not sure how anyone could ride with the Gophers after their embarrassing performance last Friday, so Boiler Up it is.
#9 Indiana (+20.5) at #3 Ohio State O/U 66, Noon EST, FOX
The Picks: Indiana +20.5 and OVER 66. Indiana is rolling into Columbus as one of the hottest teams in the country and have a 12-5-0 ATS record dating back to last season. Both teams will be able to score points, but I believe the Hoosiers are able to keep it closer than three touchdowns.
LSU (-2.5) at Arkansas O/U 63.5, Noon EST, SEC Network
The Pick: Arkansas +2.5. What a difference a year makes. Last year, LSU opened at -46 against Arkansas and now they’ll likely lose on the road outright. I could see LSU folding at any sign of adversity on the road and Barry Odom’s defense is certainly capable of forcing true-freshman quarterback TJ Finley into some mistakes.
#7 Cincinnati (-5.5) at UCF O/U 63.5, 3:30 EST, ESPN
The Pick: Cincinnati -5.5. Cincinnati is a covering machine this year and as I stated last week, I will be riding them until they don’t cover. The defense is legit and the offense is averaging 41 points per game over the last four. Cincy BIG.
#14 Oklahoma State (+7) at #18 Oklahoma O/U 59.5, 7:30 EST, ABC
The Picks: Oklahoma State +7 and OVER 59.5. Neither of these teams have lived up to their expectations this season, but the Big XII title game is still within reach for both squads. I think this will be a back and forth game always within one score, but it’s Bedlam so the over has to be bet.
Michigan (-10.5) at Rutgers O/U 55, 7:30 EST, Big Ten Network
The Pick: Rutgers +10.5. At this point, you might as well fade Michigan for the rest of the season. The whole world knows it’s Harbaugh’s last season and I could easily see the team roll over and quit. Rutgers keeps it to single digits.
Titans (+6) at Ravens O/U 48.5, 1:00 EST, CBS
The Pick: Titans +6. I may be allowing recency bias to play too much of a factor here, but the Ravens don’t look anywhere near as good as they did last season. And speaking of last season, Derrick Henry and co. waltzed into Baltimore in the playoffs last year and spanked then-MVP Lamar Jackson. Give me the Titans.
Falcons (+4.5) at Saints O/U 50.5, 1:00 EST, FOX
The Pick: OVER 50.5. It’s Jameis time in NOLA! I fully anticipate Jameis being able to take advantage of the weapons around him, but I don’t think the interceptions will magically disappear from his game. Give me all the points in this one.
Chiefs (-8) at Raiders O/U 56.5, 8:20 EST, NBC
The Pick: OVER 56.5. These two teams combined for 72 points last time around and I fully expect Mahomes and the offense to come out firing in primetime in Vegas. Settle in, get the popcorn, avoid the Sunday Scaries and watch the points tally up.
That will complete the card for this week. May the odds be ever in your favor, and let’s go win some money folks. See y’all next week.