Mon. Oct 14th, 2019

The Dumb Brain — College Football Week 7

Nothin to see here... just sweeping stats, data and analytics under the rug.

Welcome back into ‘The Dumb Brain’! I believe the title speaks for itself. For the last few years, I have been unable to follow hard data and analytics backing a gambling pick for one simple reason — my dumb brain gets in the way.

I’ve never been able to follow the advice of “gambling experts” and their data simply because this is gambling. If you don’t feel a pick in your gut or believe in it, why take it?

Each week for the rest of the season, I’ll give you my card for the upcoming Saturday slate and my dumb brain’s reasoning behind each pick. If you feel these picks too, follow them with me, or fade me if you’d like — *hint* there’s a reason this is called the dumb brain.

These picks will cover the bigger games of the weekend because, quite frankly, I don’t really give a damn about the Kent State/Akron State or UNLV/Vanderbilt games of the weekend — no offense to the irrelevant teams of the CFB world. 

Week 6 (8-0-0) Recap

FOLKS, we did it. Coming off a horrid 2-7-0 week, I had to bring it for y’all — and BOY did I come through with the oh so coveted perfect card. Our “Lock of the Week” picks moved to 4-0 on the year, even though Auburn and Florida both tried their best to make as many dumb college football plays two teams can make in a game. Other than the Auburn/Florida first half, we really didn’t have to sweat any of our other games — even the PAC-12 cooperated!

My only concern with an 8-0-0 week — yes, there can be concerns — is the gambling gods coming back around to correct my dumb brain from producing again. I don’t know when the reckoning is coming, but folks it’s coming at some point.

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Week 7 (YTD: 27-18-0)

This is THE Saturday of the college football season. If you’re as big a college football as I am, you’ve had your eye on this weekend since the preseason. We are finally in the heart of conference play, which means we can finally get some ranked matchups between teams who hate each other. Even if you aren’t a gambler, you can sit back, crack open some cold ones, and enjoy this heavenly slate of games. So, let’s find some winners and get into the card.

This Week

#11 Texas (+10.5) vs. #6 Oklahoma O/U 76 (Cotton Bowl), Noon EST, FOX

One of the best games of last season, this season’s edition might be even better with how much Sam Ehlinger has improved. Jalen Hurts has looked as good as any quarterback in the country through the first six weeks of the season.

I’m still not sold on Oklahoma’s defense since they haven’t played anyone even close to the talent Texas has and Sam Ehlinger was able to throw for 400 yards against a very good LSU defense earlier in the season.

The Picks: Texas +10.5 and OVER 76. You won’t see me not taking the OVER in a game called the “Red River Shootout”. Also, Tom Herman is still a damn good coach as an underdog. Add in the fact that this is a rivalry game, and give me Texas all day.

South Carolina (+23.5) at #3 Georgia O/U 53, Noon EST, ESPN

Look, no one is going to be watching much of this game — unless they’re Georgia or South Carolina fans — so I may just be sneaking this in here to try and get a quick win.

The Pick: Georgia -23.5. Georgia’s defense should be able to dominate throughout this game. Fromm and co. should be able to put up enough to easily cover this spread.

#1 Alabama (-17.5) at #24 Texas A&M O/U 61, 3:30 EST, CBS

Surprise, surprise, Alabama doesn’t have to play a real team until mid-October. I love this spot for the Tide. They haven’t played anyone to date, and unfortunately for A&M, I think they’re about to flex their muscles a little bit because they don’t play anyone else until LSU comes to town on Nov. 9.

The Picks: Alabama -17.5 and OVER 61. I don’t see a defense that couldn’t stop Bo Nix slowing down Tua and co. I can see Bama scoring 50 pretty easily on Saturday and A&M at least getting some garbage time points to push it over.

Florida State (+27) at #2 Clemson O/U 60.5, 3:30 EST, ABC

Clemson hasn’t impressed anyone thus far on the season. Well, their offense hasn’t impressed anyone on the season, which is quite disappointing for how loaded they are on that side of the ball. 

Florida State has seemed to show a little life after the dumpster-fire-esque start to the season. This game could go either way, with the spread considering how bipolar these teams are, so just follow your own gut on this one.

The Pick: Florida State +27. Look, FSU has the talent to keep this game close, but it’ll depend on which Clemson team shows up. Based on the last game, I’ll ride with the Seminoles here.

Michigan State (+10.5) at #8 Wisconsin O/U 40.5, 3:30 EST, B1G Ten Network

This has UGLY B1G Ten game written all over it. You know which one I’m talking about — the one with seven punts, two turnovers and a missed field goal in the last 10 drives on the drive-chart screenshot.

The Picks: Wisconsin -10.5 and UNDER 40.5. I’m going against every fiber in my being taking an under this low, but Wisconsin’s defense has been the most impressive in the B1G Ten, if not the country, this season. They should be able to have their way against a bad MSU offense. Also, the Spartans gave up 323 rushing yards to Ohio State last week, so I see a HEAVY Jonathan Taylor game here.

Washington State (+1) at #18 Arizona State O/U 59, 3:30 EST, PAC-12 Network

I guess I enjoy torturing myself, because I’m going back to the PAC-12 again this week after finally getting a win last week. Herm Edwards vs. Mike Leach might be the most polar-opposite coaching matchup we’ll see all season and no one knows what could happen in the PAC-12.

The Pick: Arizona State -1. This is a “leave it on the grass” game for Herm Edwards and the Sun Devils. I think their defense can hold Wazzu low enough to pull out the win.

USC (+11) at #9 Notre Dame O/U 59, 7:30 EST, NBC

One of the historically great rivalries in college football, now featuring two teams who haven’t done much in the last 10 years. I think Notre Dame still has a shot at the playoffs with their close loss at Georgia a few weeks ago. To have any shot of getting in, they’ll have to add some style points along the way and this is their first opportunity to get some.

The Pick: Notre Dame -11. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the USC program right now as to whom their coach will be next season. They’ve looked good one week and like shit the next. I don’t see them coming across the country and keeping this one within two touchdowns.

#10 Penn State (-3) at #17 Iowa O/U 42.5, 7:30 EST, ABC

Penn State’s defense has looked pretty damn good through this point in the season, granted they haven’t played anyone yet. Iowa’s offense looked inept last weekend in the Big House, so I’m not sure what they’ll be able to do against this stout defense.

The Pick: Penn State -3. I hate this pick because I feel like at least one top-15 team walks into Kinnick Stadium and loses every year, but *shocker* I’m following my gut on this one.

#7 Florida (+13.5) at #5 LSU O/U 56, 8:00 EST, ESPN

This is the marquee matchup of the weekend. Two undefeated top-10 teams — who just so happen to hate each other — facing off at night in Death Valley. It really doesn’t get much better than this.

LSU improved to 5-0 ATS last weekend and Vegas still can’t seem to figure this team out as the season has gone on. I think the -13.5 to open against another top-10 team is a number Vegas thinks will scare some people off LSU this weekend — but not me. I am currently 6-0 on my picks involving LSU on the season, so I’m not going to get up from the table while we’re on a heater. 

LSU and Florida have been back and forth in the last few seasons and most of the games come down to the end. However, in seasons past, Florida wasn’t coming off an extremely physical and emotional win against a top-10 team. On the other side, Dan Mullen and Todd Grantham have had Eddy Eaux and Dave Aranda’s number the last two seasons.

The Picks: LSU -13.5 and OVER 56. The addition of Joe Brady to the LSU coaching staff has made this offense one of, if not the most prolific in college football. I don’t think Florida will be able to bring the same energy as last week and they have a hobbled quarterback making his first road start in the toughest environment in college football. Geaux f*ckin’ Tigahs.

PS*** Since 2010, ranked teams who pulled off a home upset, then played a ranked team on the road the following week — 1-11 straight up and 4-8 ATS.

Let’s go win some money folks. See y’all next week.
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