Sat. Jan 18th, 2020

The Dumb Brain — College Football Week 3

Nothin to see here... just sweeping stats, data and analytics under the rug.

Welcome into ‘The Dumb Brain’! I believe the title speaks for itself. For the last few years, I have been unable to follow hard data and analytics backing a gambling pick for one simple reason — my dumb brain gets in the way.

I’ve never been able to follow the advice of “gambling experts” and their data simply because this is gambling. If you don’t feel a pick in your gut or believe in it, why take it?

Each week for the rest of the season, I’ll give you my card for the upcoming Saturday slate and my dumb brain’s reasoning behind each pick. If you feel these picks too, follow them with me, or fade me if you’d like — *hint* there’s a reason this is called the dumb brain.

These picks will cover the bigger games of the weekend because, quite frankly, I don’t really give a damn about Akron/Central Michigan or LA Tech/Bowling Green games of the weekend — no offense to the irrelevant teams of the CFB world. 

Week 2 Recap

Last week we split the card at 5-5, so the return wasn’t exactly what we were hoping for, but I couldn’t think of a more fitting start to this weekly column. Shoutout Luke Fickell for not being able to score an point and Jimbo for giving all of us Clemson-backers a big “f*ck you!” Colorado and LSU came through big and if I worked for the Action Network, I’d try to count the Colorado ML lean I mentioned, but I don’t really care about my gambling reputation — real shocker with a title like ‘The Dumb Brain’.

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Week 3 (YTD: 5-5-0)

I don’t know the last time I saw a slate of games this bad. The week stinks out loud for someone who is into gambling on the big games, but we’ll try to find some spots where money can be made. So, let’s get into the card.

#6 Ohio State (-18) at Indiana O/U 59.5, Noon EST, FOX

Ohio State’s offense looks to be firing on all cylinders with Justin Fields running Ryan Day’s system, but this will be the first “test” for the Buckeyes. This isn’t a look-ahead or let-down spot for OSU, so I don’t believe the Hoosiers will have the talent to keep up with this offense. 

The Picks: Ohio State -18 and OVER 59.5. I think Ohio State continues their trend of scoring 40+ this week, but I think the Hoosiers offense will be able to put up more than a goose-egg. I see Ohio State winning this one by at least three scores in Bloomington.

#2 Alabama (-25) at South Carolina O/U 61.5, 3:30 EST, CBS

I took my shot of betting against Alabama last week, but I don’t plan on making that a trend any time soon. South Carolina lost their future-NFL quarterback Jake Bentley for the season, so they have freshman quarterback Ryan Hilinski starting in his second career game against Alabama. Welcome to the SEC young buck.

The Pick: Alabama -25. Don’t let the size of the number scare you. Tua, Jeudy and co. will be able to score almost at will and a freshman quarterback against Alabama usually almost calls for a defensive score. Roll with the Tide this week.

#1 Clemson (-28) at Syracuse O/U 65, 7:30 EST, ABC

This one really isn’t that hard. Clemson has one of the best offenses in the country and Syracuse gave up a billion to Maryland last week. Don’t talk yourself out of it.

The Pick: Clemson -28. Like I said, Syracuse gave up a billion last week to Maryland. MARYLAND. I don’t think the best team in the country will have any trouble rolling to a 30+ point win, regardless of where the game is.

Florida State (+7.5) at #25 Virginia O/U 58, 7:30 EST, ACC Network

Florida State is in absolute shambles right now. Frankly, they should be thanking UCLA and Tennessee for sucking so badly they’re covering up Florida State’s stank. 

Virginia looks like the “team-other-than-Clemson” out of the ACC this year to make some noise and I’m a believer in the Wahoos for the season, especially this week.

The Pick: Virginia -7.5. Florida State had to win a game against Louisiana Monroe on a missed extra point in overtime. AT HOME. Willie Taggart’s seat could be fully-engulfed in flames by the end of this one.

#5 Oklahoma (-23.5) at UCLA O/U 73.5, 8:00 EST, FOX

Speaking of dumpster-fire programs, UCLA hosts Oklahoma this weekend. The #5-team in the nation is coming to town, so that means people will want to come watch some actual talent on the field, right? WRONG. UCLA is giving season ticket holders — however few are left — four extra tickets each for this game FOR F*CKING FREE. LA continues to make its case for the worst sports-town in America.

Lock-of-the-Week Pick: Oklahoma -23.5. UCLA is as dead as a team can be right now. There’s no fight left in them after losing to San Diego State at home last week and Oklahoma may just put them out of their misery for the rest of the season. I also will be taking UNDER 73.5, but I’m not confident enough in that to put it in lock-of-the-week category.

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