The Dumb Brain — College Football Week 14

Nothin to see here... just sweeping stats, data and analytics under the rug.

Welcome back into ‘The Dumb Brain’! I believe the title speaks for itself. For the last few years, I have been unable to follow hard data and analytics backing a gambling pick for one simple reason — my dumb brain gets in the way.

I’ve never been able to follow the advice of “gambling experts” and their data simply because this is gambling. If you don’t feel a pick in your gut or believe in it, why take it?

Each week for the rest of the season, I’ll give you my card for the upcoming Saturday slate and my dumb brain’s reasoning behind each pick. If you feel these picks too, follow them with me, or fade me if you’d like — *hint* there’s a reason this is called the dumb brain.

These picks will cover the bigger games of the weekend because, quite frankly, I don’t really give a damn about the Texas Tech/Texas or Bowling Green/Buffalo games on the slate — no offense to the irrelevant teams of the CFB world. 

Week 13 Recap (3-10-0)

Folks we got slaughtered last weekend. It wasn’t pretty. Easily the worst week of the year for us, but let’s not focus on that. It’s time to refocus and get back to finding winners, and I’ve been pretty good after my two losing weeks on the year — 15-4-0 to be exact.

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Week 14/Rivalry Week (YTD: 72-58-0 +8.4 units)

The best weekend of the college football season is finally here. It rarely disappoints, and I’m going to do my best to not disappoint for y’all again this weekend. So, let’s get into the card.

#1 Ohio State (-9) at #13 Michigan O/U 50, Noon EST, FOX

The Game in The Big House. Ohio State finally came down to earth last weekend when they actually played some competition, and now Ryan Day and Justin Fields are going into their toughest test yet. 

The Pick: Michigan +9. We’ve been riding Ohio State all year, but they’ve bit us in the ass the last couple of weeks. Michigan has vastly improved since the Penn State game, but they haven’t played anyone even close to Ohio State. I’m not sure if Michigan can win the game, but I think it’s a lot closer than last years match-up.

#3 Clemson (-27) at South Carolina O/U 51, Noon EST, ESPN

The Picks: Clemson -27 and OVER 51. South Carolina simply doesn’t have two top-5 upsets in them this year. Clemson is in the middle of their “Kill Everyone” tour and I don’t see it coming to an end here. Clemson may hit the over by themselves again in this one.

#5 Alabama (-3.5) at #15 Auburn O/U 49.5, 3:30 EST, CBS

The Picks: Auburn +3.5 and UNDER 49.5. I don’t think anyone knows what we’re going to get from either quarterback in this one. I can see Alabama giving Najee Harris 40 carries, but I don’t trust Mac Jones enough against this defense to pull away in this one.

#12 Wisconsin (-2.5) at #8 Minnesota O/U 46, 3:30 EST, ABC

The Pick: Minnesota +2.5. This might be the biggest game in the history of Minnesota’s program. PJ Fleck has been great at getting his squad up for big games this year, and I can see this one going exactly like the Penn State game did a couple weeks ago. Row the Fleckin’ Boat. 

Texas A&M (+17) at #2 LSU O/U 64, 7:00 EST, ESPN

Oh BOY, this is going to be a fun one. In most years, I would say LSU is looking ahead to the SEC Championship next week, but not this year. After last year’s 7OT game and postgame fight, LSU has been waiting more than a year to get a shot at A&M again.

The Picks: LSU -17 and OVER 64. Vegas really isn’t taking this revenge factor serious enough. Anything under -21 is an absolute lock. Also, I truly believe LSU might try to score 70 in regulation to run it up on A&M. LSU -17.5 lock of the week, lock of the year, lock of the decade. HAMMER IT.

Florida State (+18) at #11 Florida O/U 53.5, 7:30 EST, SEC Network

The Costanza Pick: Florida -18. No part of me wants to bet Florida because I still don’t trust their offense, but method worked for me before, so I’m going to give it a shot again. 

#7 Oklahoma (-12.5) at #21 Oklahoma State O/U 69.5, 8:00 EST, FOX

The Picks: Oklahoma State +12.5 and OVER 69.5. Oklahoma needs style points to improve how the committee looks at them, but they simply can’t blow teams out with how their defense is playing. As for the over play, I’d rather die than bet an under in the Bedlam game, especially when it’s under 70. Easy money.

Well, that will complete the card for this week. May the gambling gods be kind, and let’s go win some money folks. See y’all next week.

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