Super Bowl: Line Movement Trends

As of today, January 30th, the New England Patriots are a consensus two and a half point-favorite against the Los Angeles Rams for Super Bowl 53. Interestingly, William Hill Sportsbook is the only sportsbook in Nevada that currently has the Patriots as three-point favorites (+100 odds). It will be just as interesting to see where this spread moves to from now until game time.

Point Spread

If you’re reading this you probably already know that when the line opened for this game, sportsbooks featured the Rams as one-point favorites or a “Pick-em.” Since then, the spread has moved convincingly into the Patriots’ direction. It appears to me that the public betting market is responsible for this. I would caution anyone not to let this reason alone influence the way you bet this game. The reason is this: if you had intended to bet on the Rams from the beginning of last week, why in the world would you jump on the early lines if you can easily see that the lines are moving in your preferred direction? It would be best to wait it out and see when and where this line movement is going to stop, and that is when you should make your bets on the Rams.

Expect the line to move back to the other direction once this tipping point is reached, and I expect this point to be the key number of (+/- 3). There are a lot of Rams bettors just waiting for the chance to get their team as three-point underdogs. If you are looking to bet on the Patriots, it looks like you may have missed the boat to get the best value on them. However, if you lock in your bet now, while most sportsbooks are still offering them as only two and a half-point favorites, you will still get them below the key number of three. Sharps who are siding with the Rams are laying off until gameday for this exact reason. Leading up to Super Bowl Sunday the largest syndicates play their cards close to their chest, waiting until hours before the game starts.

Point Total

The total Over/Under has gone from 58 down to 56.5. I expect this number to move back up as more public bets are wagered on the Over for this game, probably on Friday and Saturday. Many see the early moves down as sharp bets, as they look to create a “middle”. By kickoff we could see this line be as high as 58.5 or 59, which would allow sharps a 2.5-3 pt range where they can win two bets. If you like the Over, get your bet in NOW. If you lean with the Under, I would suggest waiting until game day.

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