Week 9: New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens
By Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31) & Jordan Whitney (Twitter: @GordonVonDenim)
The BRKDWN crew is back this week as we continue to focus on our Sunday Night Football breakdown from all angles. Whether it’s betting the game or playing some fantasy sports, we have you covered for the Sunday Night Football primetime game.
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This week’s primetime game we will cover the New England Patriots (8-0, First in the AFC East) taking on the Baltimore Ravens (5-2, First Place in the AFC South) in M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.
Sunday Night Football
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens
8:20 PM EST; TV: NBC
By Jordan Whitney (Twitter: @GordonVonDenim)
Injuries – Ouch
Here we go, classic New England injury report… Everyone listed as questionable except Bob Kraft himself. In actuality it appears the Patriots will be without tight end Matt LaCosse. The offensive line is still battered as they await the return of former first-round draft pick Isaiah Wynn.
The Ravens seem healthy aside from a few questionable flags scattered across the team. Earl Thomas is one of those players listed as questionable, but reports say he will play. Fortunately for NFL fans, we get to see these two teams mostly healthy in what is sure to be one of the more exciting games of the season.
In today’s game, efficiency is key to a team’s success. Both of these teams are in the top 20 per cent of the league in efficiency. New England ultimately gets the edge as they win almost all statistical matchups, with the exception of time of possession. Both of these teams are controlling the ball over 55 per cent of the time, considering we have passed the half-way mark on the season that is remarkable. Notable advantages for New England are in the net yardage category as well as opponent points per play.
I’d be remiss to talk about efficiency and not mention DVOA. New England is the #1 ranked DVOA team, while Baltimore sits at #7. The Patriots are led by their league best defense, while Baltimore’s offense ranks 7th. New England’s offense and Baltimore’s defense both fall around league average. Baltimore possesses the eighteenth-ranked pass protection offensive line, which could spell trouble when taking on a top-five defensive line that has 31 sacks on the season.
Inside The Numbers
By Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
All Odds are Of November 2nd 10PM EST via Bookmaker, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Patriots (-3, -112) @ Ravens (+3, -108)
The last time these two teams met was in December of 2016 with New England winning and covering at home 30-23 (NE -6). Over the past 10 matchups, New England won five times while pushing one and covering all three matchups in Baltimore. Overall, the home team in this series has only covered twice and that has been New England at home with baltimore failing to cover at home three times.
Money Line (ML): Patriots (-163) @ Ravens (+143)
Head-to-head, the Patriots have dominated the Ravens going 7-3 during the 10-game span, winning 3 of 4 (one game in BAL during that span). This will be the first time sophomore sensation Lamar Jackson with face off against the evil genius Bill Bellichick.
Over 44.5 (-110) / Under 44.5 (-110)
The 44.5 is tied for second lowest in this series when it was 44.5 (regular season 2010) and 43.5 (playoffs 2010). On average, the O/U has been around 46.5 over the last 10 games they have played.
Patriots (-3, -112)
The Patriots are rolling so far in 2019 to the record of 8-0, but who have they really beat? The Steelers Week 1? When they had Ben, or the Bills in Week 4 in Buffalo. Those are the only “tough” games the Pat’s have played so far. They have beaten their opponents by an average of 23+ points this season going 7-1 ATS so far this season. Baltimore, on the other hand, is 5-2 but is only 2-4-1 ATS. However, they’re 1-0 as an underdog winning two weeks ago in Seattle. Odds are not in favor of Lamar Jackson even though they’re home rookie / second- year QBs only have a handful of victories against Bellichick’s Patriots. Patriots will win this game and it will be a close one, and likely the three will end up pushing I feel in a close low-scoring game.
Under 47.5 (-114)
Tom Brady isn’t really lighting up teams this year as he has been average at best, failing to throw over 350 yards this year, and when he has played an above average defense in the Bills he only threw for 150 / 0 / 1. The same can also be said for Lamar Jackson who has only thrown for 300+ yards once and that was way back when in Week 1 in Miami and over 250 twice in Week 2 and 3. Expect this game to be a lot of running the clock with short dink and dunk passes to keep the clock moving constantly.
I hate taking ML plays that are more than -130 or worse, but it’s hard to go against the Patriots — they do everything right and game plan so well. The one thing a Bill Bellichick team does is take away your biggest weapon and that will be the Ravens run game and that will dictate the game. Lamar will be shut down in the passing game along with every other team that has faced the Patriots, but if he could run with Ingram the Ravens have a shot. But, as mentioned, they take away strength and make it a weakness so I will be willing to trust that the Patriots come away with the W in the end.
Week 8 Recap (“bye week” on week 7):
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Packers -4.5 (Win)
Under 47.5 (Loss)
NO ML PLAY
Bonus Play Rodgers OVER 271.5 Passing Yards (Win)
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 4-3-0 (+0.73 Units)
Money Line: 2-0-0 (+2.37 Units)
Over / Under: 6-1-0 (+4.5 Units)Bonus Plays 1-0 (0.87 Units)
Overall: 12-4-0 (+8.47 Units)