Thu. Nov 21st, 2019

Sunday Night Football Betting Guide

By Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31) & Jordan Whitney (Twitter: @GordonVonDenim)



Week 10: Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys

The BRKDWN crew is back this week as we continue to focus on our Sunday Night Football breakdown from all angles. Whether it’s betting the game or playing some fantasy sports, we have you covered for the Sunday Night Football primetime game.


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This week’s primetime game we will cover the Minnesota Vikings (6-3, Second place in the NFC North) taking on the Dallas Cowboys (5-3, Tied for First Place in the NFC East) in Jerry’s World AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas

Sunday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys
8:20 PM EST; TV: NBC

Analysis

By Jordan Whitney (Twitter: @GordonVonDenim)

Injuries – Ouch

The Minnesota Vikings go into tonight missing two starters for their primetime matchup, one on each side of the ball. Adam Thielen is notably missing which puts additional pressure on Stefon Diggs, which doesnt always bode well. They also will be without starting DTLinval Joseph, although defensive line depth is not a major concern for them,

The Dallas Cowboys will miss their utility tackle, Cameron Fleming. On the surface, this may not seem like much but given Dallas’ depth and injury issues on the offensive line, it is not a good sign. Amari Cooper is questionable for the game, which would be a big blow to the offenses ability to gain chunk yardage in 3rd and long.

Efficiency

In today’s game, efficiency is key to a team’s success. Both of these teams are in the top 20 per cent of the league in efficiency. 

Dallas as I have mentioned before possesses one of the top rated DVOA offenses. They are incredibly dangerous with a mobile quarterback, a workhorse running back and solid weapons out wide — but the potential loss of Amari Cooper makes it more difficult. While Dallas’ offense is #1 in DVOA, their defense is a measly #17, but overall they are the #4 ranked team. Not the numbers you would expect after their strong showing on defense last year, however Vander Esch has battled injuries and they’ve been rather inconsistent throughout the season and struggled against strong opponents.

Minnesota is not far behind as they are the #7 DVOA team — ranking #7 in offense and defense. Kirk Cousins has a new sense of confidence and appears to be willing to take more calculated risks as needed to put his team ahead. Running back, Dalvin Cook has looked good this season as their offensive line has helped clear massive holes to help him gash defenses, often breaking out for 20+ yards.

Although I let my friend Danny handle gambling on the SNF Betting Guide, my projections have the line at Cowboys -2, meaning at the mark of -3 or -3.5… I would be backing the Vikings.

Inside The Numbers

GAMBLING COVERAGE

By Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)


All Odds are Of November 9th 10PM EST via Bookmaker, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.

The Spread: Vikings (+3, +105) @ Cowboys (-3, -125)
These teams have only met 10 times in the past 11 years, with the last meeting in 2016. A home game for Minnesota, Dallas won 17-15 (MIN covered +3). Surprisingly of those 10 meeting the Vikings have been favored 7 times and underdogs 3 times, covering 9 of 10 overall.

Money Line (ML): Vikings (+158) @ Cowboys (-183)
The Vikings have been just as good SU as then have been against the spread winning 7 of the past 10 matchups, but lost the last two meetings. Overall they are 2-2 in Dallas. Cousins Is no stranger to playing against the Cowboys and this will be his 8th game against them. Despite decent personal statistics, his record of 1-7 is a product of time spent in Washington.

Over 48.5 (-105) / Under 48.5 (-115)
Through 10 matchups, 48.5 is the second highest point total set. The under is 7-3, with the only three overs coming at 43.5 and 44, and once at 47.

The Plays

Vikings (+3, +105) / Vikings (+158)
The Vikings stumbled last week losing to a Maholmes-less Chiefs team by a game winning field goal as time expired. But prior to that had been red hot, having won four straight. Cousins has arguably been playing at an MVP type level these past few weeks and if he can keep it up the defense of Minnesota can keep it the game close and with the +3 at plus money it’s hard to pass up. On the flip side historically they have played well against Dallas, and again as long as Cousins plays well the Vikings can come out on top with the victory, as he has a lot more help and weapons on this team than he had when he was with the Redskins.

Vikings (Last 10): SU 6-3, ATS 5-4
Dallas (Last 10): SU 5-3, ATS 5-3

Over / Under – NO PLAY
At first thought I was all about the over but after thinking more about it I am torn on it as i can see a shootout between the two teams shattering the over, or i can also see a low scoring affair like 14-17 type score.


Vikings (Last 10): Over 4 Under 5
Dallas (Last 10): Over 5 Under 3


BONUS PLAY
Sticking with Monday’s props I’m going with the running backs again and going with Delvin Cook scoring a touchdown anytime at -175.


Week 9 SNF Recap:

All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Patriots -3 (Loss)

Under 47.5 (Loss)

Patriots ML -163 (Loss)
(0-3 (-3.00 Units)

SNF Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Spread: 4-4-0 (-0.27 Units)
Money Line: 2-1-0 (+1.37 Units)

Over / Under: 6-2-0 (+3.50 Units)

Bonus Plays 1-0 (0.87 Units)
Overall: 13-7-0 (+5.47 Units)

Prime Time Record(SNF & MNF):
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Spread: 4-5-0 (-1.27 Units)
Money Line: 2-2-0 (+0.37 Units)

Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)Bonus Plays 3-0 (+2.50 Units)
Overall: 13-7-0 (+5.97 Units)

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