Sunday Night Football Betting Guide

Danny DeAngelis
Head of Soccer/NHL Senior Betting Analyst

Don’t miss the opportunity to #PropUp with ThriveFantasy. A BRAND NEW product rethinking DFS & Player Props. Sign up TODAY using code “BRKDWN” and they’ll match a $10 deposit dollar-for-dollar.

We take this week’s primetime game back to Sunday night to cover the Kansas City Chiefs (8-1, 1st Place in the AFC West) taking on the Las Vegas Raiders (6-3, 2nd Place in the AFC West) in Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC

Inside The Numbers

All Odds are of November 19th @ 10 PM EST viaFanDuel Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.

The Spread: Chiefs (-8, -110) @ Raiders (+8, -110)

History (Past 10 Matchups):

These AFC West rivals battle it out on prime time in Las Vegas this week. The Chiefs failed to cover 11 points as the Raiders won outright in Kansas City a few weeks back. The Chiefs have covered six of the past 10 matchups, and of those six only two have been on the road. On the flip side, Las Vegas has been an underdog in all 10 of those past matchups, covering only four times and only twice at home, as the last time was back in 2018 in Oakland.

Money Line (ML): Chiefs (-370) @ Raiders (+295)

History (Past 10 Matchups):

Kansas City has owned this series over the past five years. They’ve won eight of the last 10 and were a favorite in all 10 of those matchups. Las Vegas may not like being the underdog, as they failed to win eight of the 10 match ups against Kansas City. They’ve won once this year (on the road) and once at home in 2017.

Over 56.5 (-115) / Under 56.5(-105)

History (Past 10 Matchups):

Normally with most division rivals, the under is the call. It even shows between these two rivals as it is 7-3 in the past 10 match ups. The only overs came this year in KC, and twice in Oakland in 2018 and 2017. When the over hits, it also means Vegas is winning outright as two of the three times it has gone over the Raiders have won. They covered each of those three times as well. In Vegas’ new home, the O/U has been evenly distributed going 2-1-1 with a slight edge to the over. Overall when the Raiders have been the home team, the O/U is also split 2-2.

Kansas City Chiefs Trends:

Under is 5-0 in the past five games against a team with a winning record and 4-0 in the past four games on the road against the home team with a winning record.

7-0 ATS in the last seven games after allowing 30 or more points in the previous game.

5-0 ATS in the past five games after a ATS loss

4-0 ATS in the past four games on the road against a team with a winning record.

Las Vegas Raiders Trends:

Over is 5-0-1 in the last six games when they are underdogs

4-0 ATS in the last four games after rushing for more than 150 yards on the previous game

4-0 in the last four games against the AFC and 5-0 against the AFC West

Over is 5-1 in the last six games when scoring 30 or more the previous game

Head-To-Head Trends:

The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings

Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings when in Las Vegas (aka Oakland)

Under is 22-9 in the last 33 meetings.

Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 road matchups

The favorite is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 matchups.

The Plays

Spread: Raiders +8, -110

The last time these two met, Vegas were underdogs by 11 points in Kansas City. The Raiders didn’t need the points as they won outright by eight in a shootout. This go around Vegas is going to need the points with MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes running on all cylinders looking to continue the Chiefs four game win streak. The Chiefs will win spoiler to my ML play, but won’t cover. This game will be another shoot out (spoiler again) coming down to a late TD to seal the deal.

Moneyline: PASS

As much as I would love to take the Raiders as home dogs this weekend, I can’t do it. I don’t see the Raiders hitting a jackpot (Vegas pun) and sweeping the Chiefs this year. While they are on the rise, they aren’t quite there yet to completely hang with the best of the best in the AFC.

Over / Under: OVER 56.5, -115

Both teams pride themselves on some decent defense this year. KC is averaging just a bit under 21 PPG while LV is holding 26.8 PPG. While both these teams met five weeks ago in a shootout, I expect it to be another “who scores last” type of game. Kansas City is averaging just about 32 PPG while Las Vegas has scored 28.3 PPG. The key to the game will be the passing attack as Kansas City averages 294.7 YPG, while Las Vegas is giving up just as much with 264.9 YPG. If Vegas can slow down Mahomes and Hill, the under has a shot but no one in the league seems to be able to slow them down.

Week 11 TNF Recap:

All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Spread: Seahawks -3 -119 Win

Moneyline: PASS

O/U: OVER 57.5 -110 Loss

Bonus Play: NONE

2020 Prime Time Record:

All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Spread: 6-5-0 (+0.37 Units)
Money Line: 3-1-0 (+4.63 Units)

Over / Under: 5-2-0 (+2.51 Units)

Bonus Plays 0-2-0 (-2.00 Units)
Overall: 14-10-0 (+5.51 Units)

2019 Prime Time Record:

Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)

Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)

Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)