Mon. Oct 14th, 2019

Sunday Night Football Betting & DFS Guide

Week 5: Indianapolis Colt @ Kansas City Chiefs

Football is back, and for now until the end of the season theBRKDWN staff will have you covered on all angels weather it’s betting the game or playing some fantasy sports we have you covered for Sunday Night Football primetime game.


Don’t miss the opportunity to #PropUp with ThriveFantasy. A BRAND NEW product rethinking DFS & Player Props. Sign up TODAY using code “BRKDWN” and they’ll match a $10 deposit dollar-for-dollar.

This week’s primetime game we will cover the Indianapolis Colts (2-2, First in the AFC South) taking on the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, 1st Place in the AFC West) in Arrowhead Stadium.


GAMBLING COVERAGE

By Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)

Sunday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

8:20 PM EST; TV: NBC
All Odds are Of October 4th 11AM EST via Bookmaker, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.

The Spread: Colts (+11, -115) @ Chiefs (-11, -105)
The last time these two teams met was last season in the Divisional Round of the AFC Playoffs in Kansas City.  With the spread being only 4 points in favor of the home team. In the last 10 meetings the spread has only been above 10 back in 2007 when it was KC +14.  Clearly this is a different colts team that is without Andrew Luck. Not much can be said with the spread over the years compared to Sunday nights matchup because it has been either Luck or Manning under center.  But for the sake of it the Chiefs have been favorites 4 times and covered 2 of them (once on the road and once at home, the same goes for the losses)


Money Line (ML): Colts (+431) @Chiefs (-575)
Heads up Colts have won 6 of the past 10 but again this isn’t your same Colt’s team

That is has been in the past.  4 of those 6 games have come in Indianapolis, with their last victory coming at home in 2014 where they won 3 straight before losing the last two.

Over 56 (-105) / Under56 (-115)
The 56 point O/U is the 2nd highest it has been between the two teams (56.5 back in 2004) when the O/U has been at 50 or higher the under is 3-1 only going over that one time back in 2004, while overall the under is 7-3 between the two teams in the past 10 meetings.

The Plays:

Chiefs (-11, -105)
Arrowhead is a tough place to play for any quarterback, just ask Tom Brady last year in the AFC title game.  Now Jacoby Brissett gets to take his shot and it’s not going to look good. As long as the spread stays under 14 points im rolling with the Chiefs, try and find some place that has it at 10 if your lucky or an alternate line if all possible because i can only see this line moving away from KC as kickoff looms

Under 56 (-115)
I’m going with past history here and rolling with the under.  For this over to hit the Chiefs need to a lot of the scoring i feel and at least score 70% of the games points (39.2) to have a realistic chance of it happening and if that does happen, the game will be far out of reach at that point that Mahomes would likely be out of the game resting.

NO ML Play
While in the NFL anything is possibly I love the value on the Colts at +431 but i honestly don’t think there is any chance of them pulling off the upset in Arrowhead.  The best thing to look for is live betting KC to a number you are comfortable with as the odds at -575 are way too high.

Week 4 Recap:

All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Cowboys -2.5 (Loss)

Under 47.5 (Win)

Saints ML +125 (Win)

2-1 (+1.91 Units)

SNF Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Spread: 3-1-0(+1.82 Units)
Money Line: 2-0-0 (2.37 Units)

Over / Under: 4-0-0 (+3.72 Units)

Bonus Plays 0-0 (0.00 Units)
Overall: 9-1-0 (+7.91 Units)

FANTASY/DFS COVERAGE

Andrew Flegar (Twitter: @ajflegs)

I am expecting a very close and low scoring game on Sunday night so this week was more difficult to put together DFS players whom I love and hate so I decided to give you one player to start whom I believe will have a monster game and one player to sit who will most likely not have a great game. Enjoy!

Start Em

Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC

Fanduel Price: $9,200

Draftkings Price: $7,500

Patty Mahomes at home during prime-time is a must start! He is the highest priced player on both Draftkings and Fanduel for prime-time slates and usually I do not like paying up for a QB but Mahomes is just too good under the lights in prime-time games. Although he is 1-4 in his career playing in prime-time games, he never struggles to perform well. Just have a look…

^Patrick Mahomes Career Prime-Time Passing and Rushing Statistics

***Italics are SNF games

KC’s Runningbacks:

LeSean McCoy, RB, KC

Fanduel Price: $6,300

Draftkings Price: $5,800

and

Damien Williams, RB, KC

Fanduel Price: $6,400

Draftkings Price: $5,700

I love the Chiefs’ runningback’s matchups with a fired up crowd cheering them on in Arrowhead stadium against an atrocious Colts run defense who have been allowing over 5 yards per rush attempt to opposing RBs in 2019. I am recommending starting McCoy and Williams together because Damien Williams is back and starting in week 5 which means that Williams and McCoy could possibly split time in the backfield in this game against the Colts. Personally I would choose to start LeSean McCoy before starting Damien Williams because I feel at the moment McCoy has temporarily taken over the starting RB position in KC. Williams struggled in his first two games this season before getting hurt where he rushed for 34 yards on 22 carries while McCoy stepped it up when Williams got hurt scoring TDs in both games when Williams was sidelined.

Sit Em

Colts Defense

Fanduel Price: $3,000

Draftkings Price: $2,000

I recommend fading the Colts defense for basically the same reasons I recommend starting Mahomes and the Chiefs’ runningbacks. Mahomes always seems to go off and put on a show during prime-time and he definitely has the ability to absolutely tear the Colts defense apart in this game. Not only do the Colts have to worry about stopping Mahomes’ passing game, but they also have to try to improve their running defense as they have been giving up nearly 5 yards per rush attempt in 2019. The Colts D is priced as the cheapest defense on Fanduel and Draftkings prime-time slates for a reason! Definitely fade them!

Sleeper

Jacoby Brissett, QB, IND

Fanduel Price: $9,200

Draftkings Price: $7,500

With the absence of Andrew Luck this season after he announced his retirement just weeks before the regular season started, nobody expected Jacoby Brissett to fill in Luck’s shoes as well as he has this season. He has thrown for multiple TD passes in every single game this season and has quietly been a top 10 fantasy QB so far this season. It is anticipated that the Colts will be trailing for most of this game which means Brissett might have to throw a little more than usual as well, which would really rack in some extra fantasy points. Brissett is actually a pretty solid option at QB and has lots of upside if you do not want to pay up for Mahomes and save some of your salary for players at other positions.

Instagram did not return a 200.