SNF Betting Guide: Week 9: Saints @ Bucs

Week 9: New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Danny DeAngelis
Head of Soccer/NHL Senior Betting Analyst

The BRKDWN crew is back this year with its weekly Sunday Night Football breakdown from all angles. Whether it’s betting the game or playing fantasy sports, we have you covered for the Sunday Night Football primetime game.

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This week’s primetime game we will cover the New Orleans Saints (5-2, 2nd Place in the NFC South) taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2, 1st Place in the NFC South) in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

Sunday Night Football
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC

Inside The Numbers

All Odds are of November 6th @ 1 PM EST via Bookmaker, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.

The Spread: Saints (+4.5, -105) @ Buccaneers (-4.5, -115)
History (Past 10 Matchups):

The Saints have been a favorite eight times in the past 10 times covering four of the past five matchups and six of the past eight. This week marks the first time since December 2016 that the Saints have been an underdog, and failed to cover the line of -2, and covered the other time winning outright in 2015.  

Money Line (ML): Saints (+192) @ Buccaneers (-230)
History (Past 10 Matchups):
Overall, New Orleans has the edge head to head winning seven of the past 10 matchups the past five seasons, winning three of those seven on the road. Meanwhile Tampa has struggled only winning three of the 10 but two of those victories have been at home.

Over 51 (-105) / Under 51 (-115)

History (Past 10 Matchups):
This is the fourth lowest total between the two teams, with it being under 50 three other times (including Week 1’s 48.5 total with the over hitting). In the past 10 matchups the over has hit six of 10 times including the past three matchups. In Tampa Bay the total has only gone over twice in the past 10 matchups.   

New Orleans Saints Trends:

Over is 7-0 in the last seven Saints games

Over is 4-0 in the last four games when passing for more than 250 yards

Over is 4-0 in the last four games following a ATS Loss, but a straight up win and on grass

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trends:

Over is 6-0 in the last six games when the Buccaneers are home favorites and 5-0 in the last five November games and 7-0 against the NFC south in the last sevens games.

Buccaneers are 0-4-1 ATS when passing for more than 250 yards in the last five games

Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in the last four games totaling 350 or more total yards.

Head To Head Trends:
The Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four matchups

Saints are 4-0 ATS in the last four matchups

Over is 5-1 in the last six matchups

Under is 9-3 in the last 12 matchups in Tampa Bay

The Plays

Spread: Buccaneers -4.5, -115

Tampa Bay is firing on all cylinders winning two of the last three games by 20 or more points (beating Green Bay and Las Vegas) winning 4 of the last 5. Brady has his new shiny toy in Antonio Brown that I’m sure he will look at early and often just like he did in the one game he played in New England.  

Moneyline: PASS

Week 1 seems like ages ago when these first two met, when the Saints won 34-32 in New Orleans. Brady didn’t have much time with his new teammates,  and now 8 weeks later he is excelling on one of the top offenses in the league. This game is closer than what the ML suggests, but I do like Tampa Bay at home but at the asking price of -230 it’s too rich for me. If the Saints take an early lead I would lean toward live betting the Bucs.


Over / Under – Over 51 -105
Week 1 the over of 48.5 hit easily by a touchdown. This matchup went up about a field goal to 51, and in some books it’s at 50 / 50.5. Whatever number you can find I would play the over I expect another shoot out like in Week 1 where each team is trading touchdowns back and forth.

BONUS PLAY

Will Antonio Brown Score A Touchdown Any Time +150
Back this week is the Bonus Play and what a better way that features Tom Bady’s new weapon at Wide Receiver than a anytime touchdown. As mentioned prior Brady is going to make sure Brown is involved early and often, and just like last year when he scored against the Dolphins I see him finding the end zone again in his home debut as a Buc.


Week 8 SNF Recap:

All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Spread: Eagles -10.5 -115 WIN

Moneyline: PASS

O/U: PASS

Bonus Play: NONE 


2020 SNF Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Spread: 4-4-0 (-0.45 Units)
Money Line: 2-1-0 (+1.93 Units)

Over / Under: 5-0-0 (4.51 Units)

Bonus Plays 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Overall: 11-6-0 (+4.99 Units)


2019 Prime Time Record(SNF & MNF):
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)

Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)

Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)