Outright Market Analysis
Each week, the outright/futures market provides an opportunity for the bettor to hit the elusive home run. With typical futures, weeks and months can pass before an outcome is decided. Most golf futures obviously have a much shorter shelf life, which can be appealing for the simple reason of not having to tie up capital for an extended period of time.
However, bookmakers have and will continue to enjoy outrights and futures markets themselves. On a typical bet of -110 on each side, the house/bookmaker holds about 4.5%. It’s easy to see and calculate, and a bettor knows when a book decides to go to -112 or -115 or worse. In the futures market, the hold is much easier to disguise from the casual bettor. I would guess that most bettors are not going to take the time to add up the necessary break- even percentage of each option in a futures market to calculate the books implied hold percentage.
This is where this section may come in handy. I will load up five book’s odds on each golfer in the field, show the break-even percentage on each player, and calculate the implied hold for each book. Additionally, I will form a “synthetic hold,” combining the best odds on each player out of the choices presented. A google sheet will be available so that bettors can update as odds change or load in odds from a different option that I have not included.
Diving into this week’s market, I looked at BetOnline, Pinnacle, BookMaker, DraftKings, and FanDuel odds as of Monday at noon. DraftKings had the best overall hold at 16.58%, while FanDuel had the highest at 27.75%. Not far behind FanDuel was Bookmaker, holding an implied percentage of 26.91%. Combining all five and getting the best price for each player, the synthetic hold came out to 13.29%. Even combining several options, books hold a much higher percentage in the outright market than the standard side/total/matchup between “A” or “B”.
In my opinion, the hold is higher due to the market being more difficult to manage as a whole. If a shop takes a big bet on a player, sure, they probably should adjust that player. The tough part has to lie in how to adjust the rest of the market. Some books may be slow to move certain players, and you can find decent discrepancies from one bookmaker to the next. Just this week, you can back Corey Conners at 66/1 at DraftKings, compared to 45/1 at BetOnline. Conversely, Kevin Kisner is available at 66/1 at BetOnline, and 45/1 at DraftKings. It should go without saying, but shopping for the best available number is imperative. A winning bettor will win more, and a losing bettor will lose less or at a slower pace.
Sentry TOC Full Tournament Matchup picks
Yeah, I’ll give out some picks each week. My preferred market is the full tournament matchup market, as I believe there to be less variance with a larger number of holes played than a single round, and I think of myself as someone who has the patience to wait out 50/1 or 100/1 wagers. I like the idea of swinging for the fences, and I’m sure you can find a few knowledgeable people out there who will give out their outright selections. Probably won’t get much from me there, but I will dive into the head to head 72 hole market options and see if I can identify some value.
Each week, I have a method of collecting data for each available player and coming up with a projected score for each player. I like to think that golf scores tend to follow a “normal distribution,” and I use a normal distribution calculator to give me a probability of each golfer beating the other in a matchup. I then compare the percentages of each player winning with the implied break even percentage provided by the odds on each player. Most of the time, my numbers are right in line with the market. The perceived edges and selections I have made this week are as follows:
Kevin Kisner (+120) over Joaquin Niemann. Don’t play worse than +115.
Gary Woodland (+110) over Patrick Reed. Don’t play worse than +105.
Xander Schauffele (+165) over John Rahm. Don’t play worse than +150.
Paul Casey (+120) over Patrick Reed. Don’t play worse than +115.
I have staked each wager to “win 1 unit.” For example, if the odds are +110, I risk .91 units to win 1. If the odds are -110, I risk 1.1 units to 1 unit.
2019-2020 season record: Risked 39.86 units , Down -2.3 units. Tracker can be found at my Twitter page @steviesharp_61
Kapalua Plantation Course Preview
Let’s be real, if you want the best golf course preview, I am not the guy. I’m sure a more experienced or mainstream golf writer can hook you up with far bettor course history than I can. I’ve never teed it up or stepped foot at Kapalua. I’d like to think that the fairways are wide enough for all of these guys to hit, leaving the track vulnerable to the free wheeling bomber type so long as the wind doesn’t blow. It’s a big ballpark at 7,411 yards, though it does uniquely feature five par 5’s and a par 73. And as with all events on the islands, a unique late night viewing experience and potential sweat can be had for those seeking entertainment.
Please, let me know what you think or what questions you have about this event, golf betting, or betting general. You can reach me on Twitter at Stevie Square, @steviesharp_61.
Best of luck, and as always, please play responsibly!