Rink Risks Betting Guide: Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals

Danny DeAngelis
Head of Soccer/NHL Senior Betting Analyst

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Rink Risks makes its way from the social media platform to the main stage for the first time this season, will provide a NHL betting guide in written form. What better way to make its debut with one of the better rivalries in the NHL with the Penguins heading to DC to take on the Capitals.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals
Verizon Center, Washington D.C.

7 p.m. EST; TV: NBCSN (National)

Inside The Numbers

All Odds are of February 22nd @ 10:30 AM EST via PowerPlay! Raise your game today!
Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.

The Spread: Penguins +1.5 (-200) @ Capitals -1.5 (+162)

2021 PIT ATS: 3-13

2021 WAS ATS 10-7

In the last 10 matchups, games have been a split of sorts as it’s either one sided (over a 2 goal victory) or been decided by a goal. Recently, it’s been more one-sided, as the winning team has won by the goal differential of 1.5 in four of the last six games.

Money Line (ML): Penguins (+105) @ Capitals (-133)
3 Way Line: Penguins (+175) / Capitals (+115) / Draw (+320)

2021 PIT ML: 9-6-1-0 (1 Draw)
2021 WAS ML: 9-5-1-2(3 Draws)

These two teams have a rich history ever since Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby both entered the league. Over the past three years, they have 10 total head-to-head matchups, with the Penguins being the favorite in a majority of them (six of 10) with two games going to OT / SO.

Over 6.5 (-105) / Under 6.5 (-125)

2021 PIT O/U 9-7

2021 WAS O/U 11-6

Normally when you have two teams with high-powered offenses, no matter who is between the pipes, a 6-6.5 O/U is likely to be in the cards. None different here, as all but one game was set at 6.5 (the other 6), and the over has hit in seven of 10.

Trends To Watch

Pittsburgh Penguins

Under is 5-1 in the Pens last six games following a win.

Pens are 1-5 in their last six after allowing two goals or LESS in their last game.

Pens are 4-1 in their last five SU.

Pens are 4-1 in their last five with two days rest.

Washington Capitals

Capitals are 6-1 in their last seven games played on Tuesday, with the Over 8-3-1.

Over is 5-1 in their last six games when playing the third game in a three in four day situation.

Capitals are 5-14 in their last 19 games following a win.

Capitals are 3-8 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game

Head-To-Head

Over is 7-1 in the last eight matchups

Under is 7-3 in the last 10 matchups in Washington

The Plays

Projected Goaltenders

Penguins: T. Jarry 5-5-1 (3.30 GAA, .892 SV%, 0 SO)

Capitals: I. Samsonov 1-0-0-1 (3.36 GAA, .868 SV%, 0 SO)

The Spread: Penguins +1.5 (-200) @ Capitals -1.5 (+162)

Very rarely do I pick a team in hockey that is getting +1.5, and at -200, nothing is really appealing as the number doesn’t give much value. On the flip side, I am hesitant in backing the Capitals by a spread with Ilya Samsonov making his first start since Jan. 17 (3-4 SO Loss at PIT) due to COVID reasons.

THE PICK: PASS

Money Line (ML): Penguins (+105) @ Capitals (-133)
3 Way Line: Penguins (+175) / Capitals (+115) / Draw (+320)

Knowing this game is in Washington, meaning they were likely going to be favorites, and I thought OK what can i get the Penguins at? I didn’t expect them to be basically even and that was upsetting, considering how down I am on Samsonov making his first start since January. The 3 Way line is an interesting one and one I am going to play as it adds more value on the Penguins while these teams rarely make it to overtime.

THE PICK: Penguins 3 Way +175

Over 6.5 (-105) / Under 6.5 (-125)

As mentioned above with the history and trends, all signs point to the over. To go along with that, in both games that Samsonov has played this year the over has hit, as he allowed 7 goals in those two games. On the other side of the rink, Tristan Jarry is likely to be between the pipes. The last three games the under has hit, and so far this year when he has played against the Capitals, he is 1-1 with the O/U also going 1-1. Expect some fireworks in this one with a high-scoring affair.

THE PICK: Over 6.5 (-105)

Last Rink Risk Recap (via twitter @Daily_Biscuit31):

All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Feb 20, 2021: VGK ML -100 (LOSS)

Feb 20, 2021: VGK / COL O5.5 (LOSS)

2020 Prime Time Record:

All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

O/U 8-3-0 +1.85U

ATS: 7-3-0 +2.9U

SU / 3 Way 11-19 -4.74U

Overall 26-25-0 +0.01U

For additional NHL content including fantasy, power rankings and more, make sure to checkout our articles by the rest of our hockey team!

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