We’re back from the International break! Let’s dive into the action for the weekend.
Leicester vs. Man United Sept. 14, 10 a.m. EST
Line: Leicester ML (+283), Man Utd ML (-110), Draw (+236)
Total: Over 2.5 (-115), Under (-115)
Leicester can win outright on Saturday. The lack of depth in United’s midfield and shaky play in the back four has cost them two wins already this season. Man Utd. will need to show signs of a turnaround since they have won 3 of their 13 previous matches. Harry Magurie will have extra motivation facing his former club for the first time. United with be without Paul Pogba, Luke Shaw and Anthony Martial.
Leicester has yet to allow more than 1 goal in a match. On the same note, their xG is 0.82 through 4 contests. Their 4-3-3 style could give United fits. With a solid backline and a lethal attack behind Jamie Vardy, Leicester will find the back of the net. Given the players missing for the match and the lack of depth for United, Leicester will leave Manchester with at least a point.
The Pick: Leicester +0.5 (even).
Chelsea vs. Wolves Sept. 14, 10 a.m. EST
Line: Chelsea ML (+136), Wolves (+186), Draw (+222)
Total: Over 2.5 (-115), Under (-115)
The Wolves are playing the top clubs at great form at home. They have proved they can compete and win as they gained 10 points against the top 6 last season. Finally, the Wolves do not have a mid-week Europa League match. Their first win of the season is achievable at home against the Blues.
Chelsea has struggled on the road thus far. They have lost both games and surrendered 7 goals. Look for Raúl Jiménez to create solid chances against Chelsea’s backline. In the Wolves 3-5-2, the wide midfielders will create space against Chelsea’s 4-2-3-1. Additionally, Christian Pulisic and Tammy Abraham will get pushed around by the stronger backline of the Wolves.
Taking a safer play with the Wolves at PK as they have drawn in three games so far, and three times as well last season against the top 6 clubs.
The Pick: Wolves PK (+105).
Juventus vs. Fiorentina Sept. 14, 9 a.m. EST
Line: Juventus ML (-142), Fiorentina ML (+397), Draw (+289)
Total: Over 2.5 (-130), Under (even)
Sarri looks healthy to manage his first Serie A match for Juventus on Saturday. With the talent on this roster, every starting XI has been highly scrutinized. However, they have won every match, so they are getting the results regardless of the roster. The offense has shown they can create plenty of chances in the Sarri-ball style. Against an aggressive, high press team like Firoentina, expect a similar match to their last game against Napoli.
Fiorentina enters this match winless. This is due to the chances they are allowing. Their xG allowed per game so far is 2.43. Something that could end up biting them against Juventus. Juve will punish you for allowing too many scoring opportunities. Uncertain if Franck Ribéry will start or not, the Violas can still create chances. Their xG forced per game is 2.13. Facing a Juventus back line that is still building chemistry with each other, Fiorentina will find the back of the net once in this game.
The Pick: Over 2.5 (-130). With both teams scoring and Juventus ultimately winning, lay the extra juice.
Lazio vs. Spal Sept. 15, 9 a.m. EST
Line: Lazio ML (-168), Spal (+459), Draw (+316)
Total: Over 2.5 (-135), Under (+105)
Two teams headed in different directions face off. Lazio shows signs of a top 4 team while Spal is winless. Lazio is coming off of an unlucky draw against Roma and will be hungry for a win. Their average xG scored is 2.24 while allowing 0.87 xG per game. Not a good sign for this Spal side. They are conceding on average 2.61 xG and only producing a 0.84 xG.
Ciro Immobile and Lazio’s offense will dominate the possession in Spal’s half and score at least 2 goals. Spal will struggle to find the back of the net against an improved Lazio back four.
The Pick: Lazio -1 (-105). A 2 goal win is likely against a side in the season long relegation battle.
In the last edition of Rex’s Soccer Corner, the picks went 4-1 for 4.56 units. Overall includes picks from the articles only, does not include game day adds.
Overall (W-D-L): 7-0-5, +4.13u
Premier League: 1-0-2, -1.10u
England Championship: 5-0-2, +5.23u
Serie A: 1-0-1, 0u
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