These two plays feature the same theme. Fade a team coming off mid-week Europa competition going against an opponent higher in the League table.
Arsenal vs. Leicester Nov. 9, 12:30 p.m. EST
Leicester has been a force at home so far this season. They are averaging 2.4 goals per game while only conceding 0.6. This is a recipe for disaster given the current form of Arsenal. David Luiz has not been able to turn the defense up a notch like the club and supporters were expecting. The Gunners only have two cleans on the season which slots them one away from last. On the road, Arsenal has been a shell of themselves offensively. Their goals per game drop from 1.8 to 1 on the dot. In a similar note, their expected goals on the road is 0.85.
Leicester’s backline can contain Aubameyang and Lacazette. Even if they do surrender a goal at home, Leicster’s attack, behind Vardy, can find the back of the net 3 times.
The Pick: Leicester ML (+105). Tweeted on 11/8.
Man United vs. Brighton Nov. 10, 11:30 a.m. EST
Brighton is no pushover this season. They are in solid form over their last four matches, winning three and also come in with extra rest. This should be an advantage against a banged up Man United. Harry Maguire is expected to play but Scott McTominay and Pogba are sidelined. Additionally, Ashley Young is suspended for this match.
Brighton’s defense has lead them to a top 8 position in the league table. The Seagulls have conceded 14 goals on the season while Man United has only scored 11. This could be due to their more attacking mindset alleviating the pressure from the defense. Brightons’ failure to capitalize on their chances has been the difference from them being a top 6 side. A low scoring affair should be expected, so the value is in taking the goal. The inconsistency from Man United plus the short rest is something I cannot get behind.
The Pick: Brighton +1 (-122). Tweeted on 11/7.
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