The fifth edition of Rex’s Soccer Corner will feature the Premier League and Champions League. Three plays for three days of action, Let’s Go!
Arsenal vs. Man United Sept. 30, 3 p.m. EST
Line: Arsenal ML (+191), Man Utd ML (+145), Draw (+242)
Total: Over3 (+115), Under (-135)
With the current injuries and form for Man United, they are listed at a decent price. The strength of the Red Devils at home has been their defense. Currently, they are conceding 0.67 goals per game at home. Look for this to remain strong against Arsenal. On the road, the Gunners’ attack has been inconsistent. Their average xG forced on the road is 0.75, which may be contributed to Lacazette remaining out of the lineup. Do not expect their fortune to turn around in Manchester.
To add onto Arsenal’s road struggles and inconsistencies, their xG allowed is 1.96. A metric that puts them in the bottom half of the league.
The Pick: Man United ML (+145).
Bayern Munich vs. Tottenham Oct. 2, 3 p.m. EST
Line: Bayern ML (+115), Tottenham (+230), Draw (+265)
Total: Over 3 (-110), Under (-110)
These two sides are in contrasting form. Tottenham has struggled in League and Champions play thus far, while Bayern is firing on all cylinders. David Alaba has returned from injury and should be in the starting XI for Bayern. Their defense steps up another level with him in the squad. On the season, they are conceding 0.86 goals per game.
The key to the matchup will be Tottenham’s defense. They only have one clean sheet in eight Premier and Champions league competitions. Not a good sign for the Spurs facing a potent attack. Bayern is averaging 3.14 goals per game. Tottenham has proven if you pound them with shots, they will break.
Back the road side looking to further the distance from second in the group.
The Pick: Bayern Munich ML (+115).
Ajax vs. Valencia Oct. 3, 3 p.m. EST
Line: Ajax ML (+177), Valencia ML (+151), Draw (+249)
Total: Over 2.5 (-140), Under (+110)
This line seems short to me in a match where both teams will surely score. Valencia has struggled to keep a clean sheet against sides that play an attacking style. They are conceding close to 2 goals per game. Ajax’s 4-2-3-1 formation can take advantage of that. They produce 19 shots on target per game, leading to them average 2.85 goals per game.
The key to the over will be Valencia’s counter attack. Their 4-4-2 formation allows for an instant break out when the opportunity presents itself.
Both sides have secured 3 points in their first match. This is for first place in the group, so expect both teams to come out firing.
The Pick: Over 2.75 (-115).
(W-D-L): 7-0-9 -0.27u
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