Thu. Nov 14th, 2019

Overvalued WRs for 2019 Fantasy Football

The worst feeling during the fantasy season is when you spend high draft capital on a player and they fail to produce which then leads to you taking last place and regretting that pick for years to come. These are three wide receivers that I believe are being way too overvalued and I suggest you stay away from for the 2019 fantasy football season.

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Odell Beckham Jr.

I am probably going to get a lot of hate for this, but I am going to stay true to the facts on this and avoid this fan-favorite receiver for the 2019 season. Beckham “escaped” the fantasy jail that is Eli Manning this past offseason as he was traded to the Cleveland Browns, and immediately was hyped as a top wide receiver for fantasy. The hype has been on full displayas OBJ is being drafted as the WR5, and since this is an average I am sure he has been drafted top 3 in many leagues and even as high as the WR1. Last season Odell finished as the WR15 in full point PPR despite only playing 12 games, but the WR15 finish may be deceiving as his week-by-week consistency was not the best. In the 12 games OBJ played in the 2018 season, he managed to finish as a top 12 WR or “WR1” only 41.67 percent of the time. To me, I don’t want to spend an early second round pick on a player that produces at a comfortable level less than 50 percent of the time. 

By taking a quick look at Beckham’s new fit on the Browns, the common fantasy player would think that he is prime for a big year as he is upgrading tremendously at quarterback. However, an in-depth look will make you think twice about your thoughts on OBJ’s fantasy outlook for this upcoming season. The past two seasons, OBJ averaged a 26.75 percent target share while wearing the blue and white, but now as a Brown it will be hard to demand that same target share that fuels his fantasy points year in and year out. Last season the Browns target share was demanded mostly by two wide receivers, one tight end, and one rookie running back and now with the additions of Kareem Hunt and Odell it seems almost too cluttered for solid fantasy production. To put in a number’s perspective, Jarvis Landry held a 26.4 percent target share, David Njoku took in 16.9 percent, Antonio Callaway held a 14.4 percent share, and that isn’t even taking in Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson Jr. For me, it is not that I am doubting Odell’s talent, it is that I am doubting the target share on this crowded team.

Sammy Watkins

I feel like every year Sammy Watkins is always deemed as comeback or breakout wide receiver and somehow makes it into the top 30 WR in terms of ADP. Currently being drafted as WR29, people are deeming him as the Tyreek Hill replacement with Hill’s suspension looming. Watkins has only played one full 16-game fantasy season in his five-season career, while missing 19 total missed games. If you are drafting purely based on ADP and filling a position need, Watkins is being drafted ahead of guys like Dante Pettis, Robby Anderson, Christian Kirk, and Allen Robinson. I know that I would much rather have any of those four players if I absolutely must draft a WR at that spot. Although there is clearly upside at this pick I just will be staying away from Watkins as I like to stay as risk averse in the first couple rounds as possible.

To me, it does not make any sense as to how Watkins is in line to take Tyreek’s workload as they are two completely different builds and types of receivers. It is safe to say that Watkins will be drafted high, miss some games, and disappoint his fantasy owners for the 2019 season.

Adam Thielen

If you want to talk about a rollercoaster of a season look no further than this Minnesota Vikings wide receiver. Adam Thielen started hotter than the sun as he finished as a top 12 WR seven times out of the first nine weeks, but then as most Thielen owners know, he cooled way off. The last half of the season he was only able to produce ONE WR1 week the last seven weeks. The rest of the fantasy football universe must not be scared as Thielen is being drafted as the WR10 in full point PPR drafts, but I am very confident that he will NOT finish at that spot.

Shown above is the target distribution of the Vikings skill players during the final 3 games of the season where new offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski called the plays. As you can see Thielen only received 12 targets during those games and Diggs was the huge favorite in terms of targets received. Although I show you these numbers don’t take this and target Diggs this early, take these numbers and use that as a caution to maybe slide Thielen down on your board due to his lack of consistent points every week. BE CAUTIOUS!

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