As you all know by now, prior to this season, I began tuning my NHL prediction model at the team level. It uses a variety of team statistics such as win streak, goals for/against, rest, team save percentage if playing the second game of a back-to-back, etc. The model is trained on the stats from the previous two seasons and all games up to date in the current season. I run an NHL scraper each morning to update stats from the previous night’s games. As teams play more games and more data is fed through the model from the current year, it will start to produce better results.

March 8th NHL Prediction Model Output

The Home and Away “Edge” is the difference between the win percentage that Vegas gives a team and what my model gives a team. I am playing on teams with edges over 3 percent currently. Lines are observed at approximately 9 a.m. EST. I consider betting on teams with more than a 10 percent edge on a case-by-case basis. These games require more in-depth look to injury reports and starting goalies to figure out why the line may be so far off.

Best Bets for March 8

Calgary Flames ML (+102)

Model Edge: 2.70%

Projected Starting Goalies:

David Rittich – CGY- 2.94 GAA – .907 Sv%

Marc-Andre Fleury – VGK – 2.79 GAA – .905 Sv%

Chicago Blackhawks ML (+122)

Model Edge: 4.65%

Projected Starting Goalies:

Corey Crawford – CHI – 2.81 GAA – .916 Sv%

Jordan Binnington – STL – 2.57 GAA – .911 Sv%

NHL 82 Game Challenge: If you are not familiar with theBRKDWN’s 82 game challenge, you will see that each member of our NHL team has selected one team to follow the entire season. Each game that our team plays in we must bet on a side or total in some way connected to the game.

My team is the Tampa Bay Lightning. So be on the lookout for every game the Lightning have as I will have a play on them. Today I will be taking the Detroit Red Wings ML +245 as the odds are just too high to take the favored Lightning.

Bonus Bets: Check out @Data_Diamond and @the_brkdwn NHL team on Twitter today to get all of your NHL bets and other hockey content.

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