Mon. Oct 14th, 2019

NHL Best Bets for October 5th

Welcome to the first edition of 2019-2020 NHL Best Bets!

Prior to this season I have been tuning my NHL prediction model at the team level. It uses a variety of team statistics such as win streak, goals for/against, rest, team save percentage, if playing the second game of a back-to-back, etc. Be warned that the team level model is relying on stats from previous seasons. It has a difficult time accounting for offseason roster moves because the features of the model are at the team level. As teams play more games and more data is fed through the model from the current year it will start to produce better results.

I have finally found an NHL scraper for play by play data and I will be developing a player level model to better predict teams that will win a particular NHL game. 

For now I will share with you my NHL prediction model at the team level. See the image below for October 5th output from the model.

October 5th NHL Prediction Model Output

Betting on NHL games during the first month or two of the season can be wild. Teams have not settled in to their systems and games can be quite unpredictable. Be careful with the amount you are betting and don’t ruin the rest of the NHL season for yourself by going overboard in the first month. With my model I am disregarding any game that gives over 10% “edge” for the first month of the season because I believe there is not enough data for the model to accurately predict who will win the game.

Best Bets: For tonight’s best bet we are going back to the well with SDQL queries via Killer Sports. We are taking a look at away favourites who won their previous game at home putting up more than 40 shots on goal. These teams win straight up at a 61% rate with an average line of -136 and ROI of 4.5%. The team that falls into this category is the Carolina Hurricanes.

NHL 82 Game Challenge: If you are not familiar with theBRKDWN’s 82 game challenge, you will see that each member of our NHL team has selected one team to follow the entire season. Each game that our team plays in we must bet on a side or total in some way connected to the game.

My team is the Tampa Bay Lightning and I’ll be risking one unit on the Lightning puck line at +213. They’re on the back side of a home and home with Florida. Kucherov picked up right where he left off last season in game one and I expect the Bolts to fill the net again tonight. Over plus 200 odds for the Lightning this year are going to be automatic plays all season long. 

Bonus Bets: Check out @Data_Diamond and @the_brkdwn NHL team on Twitter today to get all of your NHL bets and other hockey content.
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