Prior to this season I have been tuning my NHL prediction model at the team level. It uses a variety of team statistics such as win streak, goals for/against, rest, team save percentage, if playing the second game of a back-to-back, etc. The model is trained on the previous two seasons and all games up to date in the current season. I run an NHL scraper each morning to update stats from the previous night’s games. As teams play more games and more data is fed through the model from the current year, it will start to produce better results.
I have finally found an NHL scraper for play by play data! I will be developing a player level model to better predict teams that will win a particular NHL game.
For now I will share with you my NHL prediction model at the team level. See the image below for the November 2nd output from the model.
The Home and Away “Edge” is the difference between the win percentage that Vegas gives a team and my model. I am playing on teams with edges over 4% currently. Lines are observed at approximately 9am EST.
Betting on NHL games during the first month or two of the season can be wild. Teams have not settled in to their systems and games can be quite unpredictable. Be careful with the amount you are betting. Don’t ruin the rest of the NHL season for yourself by going overboard in the first month. With my model I disregard any game that gives over 10% “edge” for the first month of the season because I believe there is not enough data for the model to accurately predict who will win the game.
Last Week 3-0 for +3.22 Units
Best Bets for Nov 2:
Ottawa Senators ML (+312)
Detroit Red Wings ML (+244)
Minnesota Wild ML (-115)
NHL 82 Game Challenge: If you are not familiar with theBRKDWN’s 82 game challenge, you will see that each member of our NHL team has selected one team to follow the entire season. Each game that our team plays in we must bet on a side or total in some way connected to the game.
My team is the Tampa Bay Lightning. So be on the lookout for every game the Lightning have as I will have a play on them. They’re off tonight, but back at it on November 8th against the Sabres.
Bonus Bets: Check out @Data_Diamond and @the_brkdwn NHL team on Twitter today to get all of your NHL bets and other hockey content.
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