By: Rob Bowen @Data_Diamond
NHL Best Bets for November 27th
Prior to this season, I began tuning my NHL prediction model at the team level. It uses a variety of team statistics such as win streak, goals for/against, rest, team save percentage, if playing the second game of a back-to-back, etc. The model is trained on the previous two seasons and all games up to date in the current season. I run an NHL scraper each morning to update stats from the previous night’s games. As teams play more games and more data is fed through the model from the current year it will start to produce better results.
I have found an NHL scraper for play by play data and I will be developing a player level model to better predict teams that will win a particular NHL game.
For now, I will share with you my NHL prediction model at the team level. See the image below for the November 27th output from the model.
The model has taken a big hit the past few nights dropping to a win % below .500. We are still positive units on the year as the model tends to find outliers for underdogs quite a bit. On Monday it found all of the away teams on Monday had edges and obviously every single home team went on to win except one. We’re looking to bounce back in a big way before American Thanksgiving today.
The Home and Away “Edge” is the difference between the win percentage that Vegas gives a team and what my model gives a team. I am playing on teams with edges over 4% currently. Lines are observed at approximately 9am EST.
Betting on NHL games during the first month or two of the season can be wild. Teams have not settled into their systems and games can be quite unpredictable. Be careful with the amount you are betting and don’t ruin the rest of the NHL season for yourself by going overboard in the first month. With my model, I am disregarding any game that gives over 10% “edge” for the first month of the season.
Best Bets for Nov 27:
Winnipeg Jets ML (+121)
Vegas Golden Knights ML (+118)
Florida Panthers ML (+138)
NHL 82 Game Challenge: If you are not familiar with theBRKDWN’s 82 game challenge, you will see that each member of our NHL team has selected one team to follow the entire season. Each game that our team plays in we must bet on a side or total in some way connected to the game.
My team is the Tampa Bay Lightning. So be on the lookout for every game the Lightning have as I will have a play on them. I’ll be playing the UNDER 6 (-110) in Tampa’s game today.
Bonus Bets: Check out @Data_Diamond and @the_brkdwn NHL team on Twitter today to get all of your NHL bets and other hockey content.
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