NHL Best Bets for January 11th

Prior to this season, I began tuning my NHL prediction model at the team level. It uses a variety of team statistics such as win streak, goals for/against, rest, team save percentage if playing the second game of a back-to-back, etc. The model is trained on the previous two seasons and all games up to date in the current season. I run an NHL scraper each morning to update stats from the previous night’s games. As teams play more games and more data is fed through the model from the current year, it will start to produce better results.

I have found an NHL scraper for play-by-play data and I will be developing a player level model to better predict teams that will win a particular NHL game. 

For now, I will share with you my NHL prediction model at the team level. See the image below for the January 11th output from the model.

We are only a few weeks away from the All-Star break and the NHL model is up 32.28 units. I could not ask for a better first half of the season. The model has even more data now, and teams are settling into their systems. I suspect the model should start predicting closer to Vegas lines and it might not have as much variance as we  saw earlier in the season. This might mean fewer picks per night but more accurate results.

January 11th NHL Prediction Model Output

The Home and Away “Edge” is the difference between the win percentage that Vegas gives a team and what my model gives a team. I am playing on teams with edges over 3 per cent currently. Lines are observed at approximately 9am EST. I consider betting on teams with over 10 per cent edge on a case by case basis. These games require more in-depth look to injury reports and starting goalies to figure out why the line may be so far off.

Best Bets for Jan 11: 

New York Rangers ML (+177)

Carolina Hurricanes ML (-200)

Chicago Blackhawks ML (-137)

NHL 82 Game Challenge: If you are not familiar with theBRKDWN’s 82 game challenge, you will see that each member of our NHL team has selected one team to follow the entire season. Each game that our team plays in we must bet on a side or total in some way connected to the game.

My team is the Tampa Bay Lightning. So be on the lookout for every game the Lightning have as I will have a play on them. Today I will be playing the Lightning ML at -134.

Bonus Bets: Check out @Data_Diamond and @the_brkdwn NHL team on Twitter today to get all of your NHL bets and other hockey content.
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