Prior to this season, I began tuning my NHL prediction model at the team level. It uses a variety of team statistics such as win streak, goals for/against, rest, team save percentage, if playing the second game of a back-to-back, etc. The model is trained on the previous two seasons and all games up to date in the current season. I run an NHL scraper each morning to update stats from the previous night’s games. As teams play more games and more data is fed through the model from the current year it will start to produce better results.
I have found an NHL scraper for play by play data and I will be developing a player level model to better predict teams that will win a particular NHL game.
For now, I will share with you my NHL prediction model at the team level. See the image below for the December 7th output from the model.
Best bets went 2-1 for +1.53 units last week for our third straight winning day. Today the model is seeing some opportunities for mostly away teams. The biggest favourite seems to be the Calgary Flames where the model predicts a 64.07% chance of winning.
The Home and Away “Edge” is the difference between the win percentage that Vegas gives a team and what my model gives a team. I am playing on teams with edges over 4% currently. Lines are observed at approximately 10am EST. I consider betting on teams with over 10% edge on a case by case basis. These games require more in depth look to injury reports and starting goalies to figure out why the line may be so far off.
Best Bets for Dec 7:
Columbus Blue Jackets ML (+142)
Detroit Red Wings ML (+174)
New York Islanders ML (+133)
NHL 82 Game Challenge: If you are not familiar with theBRKDWN’s 82 game challenge, you will see that each member of our NHL team has selected one team to follow the entire season. Each game that our team plays in we must bet on a side or total in some way connected to the game.
My team is the Tampa Bay Lightning. So be on the lookout for every game the Lightning have as I will have a play on them. I’ll be playing UNDER 6.5 (+112) today when Tampa takes on San Jose.
Bonus Bets: Check out @Data_Diamond and @the_brkdwn NHL team on Twitter today to get all of your NHL bets and other hockey content.
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