Tue. Dec 10th, 2019

NCAAF Season Win Totals Results and a Hedge Opportunity

We are headed into Conference Championship weekend, which means regular win season total tickets are being cashed or burned. Before the season, I highlighted the Power 5, Group of 5 and Independents with at least one win total bet in each. I utilized my power rankings model to predict a win probability for each game, resulting in a win total for the season. After that, I dove deeper into team’s schedules and rosters to find value. It was a successful season, winning 8.15 units from 12 wins and 4 losses. Oh, and we have a +300 conference championship ticket pending that could be hedged easily. 

Best Over: SMU (Over 6)

SMU soared over the total, winning their first 8 games of the season, and finishing 10-2. The Mustangs started the season hot, but have cooled off quite fast. Not competing in the ACC conference championship game has been a tough pill to swallow as they lost late in the season to Memphis and Navy. Their hopes of playing in a bowl on New Year’s Day are over, but they exceeded expectations by far. 

Best Under: Washington (Under 9.5)

Washington did not have the season they envisioned with their third loss of the season coming to Oregon in October and ending at 7-5. Also, Coach Petersen is stepping down from the program after six seasons. Fans are stunned, as that was unexpected. There are many questions swirling around and it is too soon to the announcements for any speculation given Pete Thamel’s comments.

Worst Over: Troy (Over 7.5)

Troy had the opportunity to reach the Sun Belt conference championship game at an advantage with most of their crucial games at home. They squandered this opportunity quickly going 3-3 at home and 3-5 in conference. The Trojans finish the season with five wins with the total never in reach. 

Worst Under: Minnesota (Under 7.5)

Minnesota won 8 games before they lost a game. Safe to say, this had no chance as they end the season 10-2. Granted they won five games by one score, each was to an inferior opponents, except for Penn State. P.J. Fleck had his squad prepared for this season, which ended as their best in recent history. Vegas and the public may continue to Row the Boat as next season’s win total will be drawing many eyes. 

The Egg Bowl Sweat

If you tuned in for the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving, boy were you in for a wild ending. With both teams below .500, the common fan may not have been watching with the holiday or the Saints/Falcons game on. Many are regretting that decision now, as I had the fourth quarter sweat of a lifetime with my Ole Miss under 4.5 wins pending. Before the touchdown celebration pitfall, there were two crucial plays that had me pacing around my living room. The Rebels converted a 4th and 24 with 54 seconds left, the receiver was absolutely wide open and caught the pass beyond the line to gain. Then, Ole Miss converts another 4th down by drawing Miss St. offsides with 28 seconds left. Finally, Elijah Moore scores and I was strapping in for overtime. Well, if you still have not seen what occured after the touchdown, or want another laugh, check out the celebration called in Russian. 

Clemson Over 11.5 Never in Doubt

Clemson may not have been tested this season, so there was no doubt this was cashing. The smallest spread in any game was -16. Other than their one point victory at UNC in September, the Tigers blew out their opponents. Clemson had an +34.3 average scoring margin, only Ohio St. was better. Their next closest game was a 14-point win against Texas A&M, who scored a garbage time touchdown to make it appear closer than how the game really was. Trevor Lawrence is poised for the opportunity to win back-to back national championships. 

Hedge Utah Pac 12 Champs at +300?

With their only loss to USC without Zack Moss, Utah has made it to their first of two destinations post-regular season. The Utes are listed as 6.5 point favorites so that presents two hedge opportunities, if you decide not to let it ride. Oregon is listed around +200 on multiple books, so for math simplicity, I am using +200 when providing the two options. Option One: risk 0.5u on Oregon ML to win 1u. If you are confident that Utah will win but want no risk, this is the option for you. You will be either +2.5u or not even. Option Two: risk 1u on Oregon ML to win 2u. If you are 50/50 or want to secure profit regardless, this is the option for you. You will be either +2 or +1u at the end of the day. Personally, I have not locked in any hedge yet, but if I do it would be option one. 

Full Recap, Links for each Article below

ACC: 2-0

B1G: 2-1

Big XII: 2-0

PAC 12: 1-1, Utah pending

SEC: 2-0

Independents: 0-0-1

Group of 5: 3-2

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