NBA Friday: Bryce’s Best Bets 11/7

Bryce’s NBA Daily Picks Recap 2019-20: 

Yesterday: 1-2

This Week: 4-10

YTD: 15-15-1

*all 1 unit plays*

If you like sweating games all the way down to the very last play, we had one of those last night . Despite being down heading into the fourth quarter, a clutch drawn-charge and four clutch free throws from Kawhi got us the cover by a measly half point. Nothing beats watching a great game where you win some money!

Unfortunately, a couple unders in the OKC/San Antonio and Miami/Phoenix were way off the mark, so we ended 1-2 on the night. 

We have 11 more NBA games tonight, so I’m riding some hot trends in my 4 picks for tonight!

#1.) Memphis Grizzlies 1st Half +3.5 (-115) @ Orlando Magic

Speaking of hot trends, none have been better than the Memphis Grizzlies in the first half. At a perfect 7-0 and 2-0 on the road, I am riding the Grizz and their substantial first-half point differential of +4. .

Not only is Memphis a good first half bet, but Orlando also isn’t a great one. The Magic are 3-5 first-half ATS. While they are 2-2 in this spot at home, Orlando still has a -1 point differential versus Memphis’ +2 on the road. 

The Grizzlies have significantly better first-half stats across the board compared to the Magic, and are one of the best bets so far this season, so I’ll take them first-half +3.5.

#2.) Detroit Pistons +7.5 (-110) @ Indiana Pacers 

Would you believe me if I said these two teams have played each other twice already? Detroit has taken the first two matchups of their season series, first by 9 on the road in their season opener and again by 2 at home less than two weeks ago. I believe 7.5 points is way too many points for the Pistons due to the Pacers early injury problems and these teams recent familiarity. 

These teams have been fairly  similar in a lot of ways this season. Detroit and Indiana are both middle of the road offensively and defensively, while  playing similar opponents in the Nets, Cavs, Bulls, and each other (twice). 

Although beating a team three times is tough, the Pistons should have a good chance of doing it here. Despite missing their hot-hand in Derrick Rose due to injury, Andre Drummond and company have had success against the injury riddled Pacers. Indiana will get Domantas Sabonis back, but other big man Myles Turner is still questionable with an injury that has kept him out the past week. Even backup center Goga Bitzade is out with a concussion and  Jeremy Lamb was recently ruled unavailable with a sprained right ankle.

Their numbers are too similar and Detroit has been solid against the Pacers this year, so I’m taking the Pistons +7.5 tonight on the road.

#3.) Toronto Raptors -2.5 (-110) @ New Orleans Pelicans

This is a simple play: the Raptors are a solid team who have been  beating up on bad teams, and the Pelicans are a bad team who have been getting beat – including by the Raptors already!

Honestly, Toronto’s 5-2 record doesn’t prove much at this point since they are 0-2 against teams with records above .500. Luckily, New Orleans does not come close to falling under that category, and are 1-6 due to their league-worst defense and sporadic offense. 

Instead, we look at how the Raptors have fared against those below-average teams, where they have been taking care of business. Toronto is 5-0 against teams currently .500 or worse, with an average winning margin of 12.6 PPG. This includes beating each of these teams by at least 4 points, which is good for their -2.5 spread tonight.

Not overthinking this one – the Raptors take care of bad teams, and the Pelicans are a bad team. 

#4.) Milwaukee Bucks @ Utah Jazz Total Under 217.5 Points

I told you I would be riding the hot trends here, and the under in Jazz games checks that box. 

Utah currently has the best defense in the NBA by holding opponents to 96.6 PPG, 41.6 FG%, and 31.1% 3PT FG%. This, along with running a slow-paced offense that is 27th in the NBA at 100.8 PPG, has led to  the under hitting in 7 of their 8 games this season. 

This trend will be put to the test against the Bucks, who have the highest scoring offense in the NBA at 122.3 PPG. However, these numbers may be a bit inflated due to them playing some bad defensive teams. When playing teams in the top-12 of PPG allowed the last 6 games, the Bucks over/under record is 1-1-1 with the totals being 221, 214, and 220. Now, they will have to take on the best defense in the NBA in Utah, which also helps, since Milwaukee’s over/under on the road is 2-2-1. 

The Bucks score a lot of points, but they should be brought back down to earth against the Jazz’s stellar defense. Utah has also struggled to score themselves, so Milwaukee’s improving defense should have a chance to show up, giving us a good spot to hit another Jazz under.