Thu. Nov 21st, 2019

Monday Night Football Betting Guide

By Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31) & Jordan Whitney (Twitter: @GordonVonDenim)


Week 9: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

The BRKDWN crew is back this week as we continue to focus on our Monday Night Football breakdown from all angles. Whether it’s betting the game or playing some fantasy sports, we have you covered for the Sunday Night Football primetime game.


Don’t miss the opportunity to #PropUp with ThriveFantasy. A BRAND NEW product rethinking DFS & Player Props. Sign up TODAY using code “BRKDWN” and they’ll match a $10 deposit dollar-for-dollar.

This week’s primetime game we will cover the Dallas Cowboys (4-3, First in the NFC  East) taking on the New York Giants (2-6, Third Place in the NFC East) in MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford.

Monday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
8:15 PM EST; TV: ESPN

Analysis

By Jordan Whitney (Twitter: @GordonVonDenim)

Injuries –  Ouch

The Cowboys will roll out every starter for tonight’s matchup. The only starter to appear on the report was Leighton Vander Esch, designated as questionable but all signs point to him starting tonight.

The Giants also look rather healthy in a shocking turn of events. After having nearly 25% of their starters out at various times this year, they have a clean slate tonight with the exception of Sterling Shepard.

Home Field Advantage… is it back?

The narrative by every talking head around the league this year was that “home field advantage was cancelled”. Well, after a blood bath of Sunday that saw every home team not only cover the spread, but win outright (excluding Jacksonville/London Game) it is safe to say that home field advantage matters. As the home team tonight, does that give the Giants some type of edge? Perhaps… but this is Danny Dime’s second primetime game, so maybe we don’t bet our children’s tuition fund on the Giants ML, okay?

Efficiency

In today’s game, efficiency is key to a team’s success. The Cowboys have seemed to accidentally stumble into the modern game and like to take breaks from it pretty regularly (for proof, please see every press conference when Jerry Jones mentions more rushes for Zeke). The Giants are a difficult picture to paint, as they have a new quarterback after Sir Eli Manning shockingly looked horrible to start the season. Dallas contains the #1 DVOA offense which is a legitimate shock to me every time I fire up Football Outsiders. 

Both offensive lines are above average, with Dallas being a top 5 unit overall. Dallas is strongest on the ground, but still sits at #6 in pass protection. New York, while above average on the ground — is below average in pass protection, with a 21st ranking. They will need to limit the mistakes and keep Jones upright if they expect to win. Ready for a fun one? The Giants have a better defensive line than the Cowboys. Are you as shocked as I am? The Giants possess one of the top pass rush units, while being above average against the rush. Dallas is below average against both… Their inability to stop the rush could prove to be a difference maker when going against the likes of Saquon Barkley.

In true efficiency, Dallas has the edge. Their time of possession numbers are better than New York and they also hold the edge on points per play and opposing points per play. The one edge I do see for the G-Men is their ability to limit red zone touchdowns, where they only allow 50% — a mark good for seventh in the league.

Although signs point to Dallas having some key advantages, if the Giants can make Dak uncomfortable and can stuff the run… Dallas might be in for a considerably tougher game than everyone thinks.


Inside The Numbers

GAMBLING COVERAGE

By Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)

All Odds are Of November 3rd 10PM EST via Bookmaker, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.

The Spread: Cowboys (-6.5, -110) @ Giants (+6.5, -110)
The last time these two teams met was earlier in the year with Dallas beating the Giants, led  by Eli Manning. This go around, Dallas will see Daniel Jones. Dallas has covered the last 5 games with 2 of those games in the Meadowlands.  Prior to those 5 games , the Giants have covered all 5 of those, with 3 games at home.

Money Line (ML): Cowboys (-300) @ Giants (+245)
Head-to-head, the Cowboys have won 6 of the 10 previous matchups winning the last 5 games.  Mentioned above, this will be the first time Daniel Jones is introduced to the rivalry as he took over for Eli weeks ago. He has been up and down since winning his first two starts but then lost his last 4.  Dallas has seemed to have corrected their issues after losing three straight, with a statement win last week against the Eagles.

Over 48 (-115) / Under 48 (-105)
The 48 is tied for the 2nd highest in the past ten games with only 52 being the highest back in 2015 (when it went over)  On average the O/U 45.25 and when it has been around that number has gone over 4 times in 10 meetings. And overall it has gone over 5 times and under 5 times.

The Plays

Giants (-+6.5, -110) & Giants Money Line (+245)
Danny Dimes will make his second primetime start of his career (0-1 loss in New England) and this will be his first at home in the swamp of the Meadowlands.  Not only that, he will be thrown into one of the greatest rivalries in the NFL. Tonight’s game will mark the first time Jones will have all his weapons at his disposal (Barkly, Engram, Sheppard, Tate and Slayton).  Expect a big game from Jones and the Giants getting back in the Win column and finally beating Dem Boys in prime time.

Over 48 (-115)
This game is going to be a good old-fashioned shootout, given all the question marks the Giants have in the secondary. Dak and Zek will have plenty of  chances as well as Jones having plenty of options at his disposal. I am going against history as the over has only hit twice in the past 7 meetings. t You need to go back to 2015 when the over hit at 45.

BONUS PLAY
Lots of prop plays I like in this one but I am targeting the two running backs in this one.
Z. Elliot Over 88.5 Rushing Yards -118
S. Barkley Over 37.5 Receiving Yards – 118


Week 8 Recap:

All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Spread: None

O/U: None

ML: None
Bonus Play: None

0-0-0 (+0.00 Units)

MNF Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Spread: 0-0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Money Line: 0-0-0 (+0.00 Units)

Over / Under: 0-0-0 (0.00 Units)

Bonus Plays 0-0 (0.00Units)
Overall: 0-0-0 (0.00 Units)

Prime Time Record(SNF & MNF):
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted

Spread: 4-3-0 (+0.73 Units)
Money Line: 2-0-0 (+2.37 Units)

Over / Under: 6-1-0 (+4.5 Units)Bonus Plays 1-0 (0.87 Units)
Overall: 12-4-0 (+8.47 Units)

Instagram did not return a 200.