MLB Covering the Bases Weekly Betting Guide

Welcome to theBRKDWN’s midweek MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Come back on Friday for the weekend picks.

All lines are provided by Bet365.

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Last Week: 3-2, Season 26-16

Dodgers @ Giants, Win
Red Sox vs. Phillies, Win
Astros @ Rangers, Loss
Cardinals @ Cubs, Loss
Yankees @ White Sox, Win

Weekend Matchups

Giants @ DodgersBraves @ MetsOrioles @ White Sox
Reds @ CubsMarlins @ Red SoxAngels @ Athletics
Rockies @ PiratesYankees @ TigersCardinals @ Diamondbacks
Brewers @ NationalsPadres @ AstrosRangers @ Mariners
Blue Jays @ IndiansRoyals @ TwinsPhillies @ Rays

Betting Advice

Braves, -155 @ Mets (Friday Night)

Betting on the NL East has not been for the faint of heart, but given the fact that this is a gambling blog, and you are reading this, that probably doesn’t describe you. Well, it doesn’t describe me either. This division has been the most unpredictable thing in baseball all year. If you can figure out which of these teams are good, and which are bad, more power to you. I have given up.

Nonetheless, I like the Braves tonight. I’m not too high on Braves’ starter Ian Anderson, but he’s pitched pretty well, to the tune of 2.82 ERA. The thing I really like here is that the Mets offense is terrible. There are only two teams who have had a worse offensive efficiency than the Mets over the last week. On the other hand, the Braves have led the MLB in offensive efficiency in that span. I expect the Braves to stay hot and Ian Anderson to pitch well enough to give the Braves a win.

Blue Jays, 5 Inning ML, -170 @ Indians (Friday Night)

The Blue Jays are coming off a doubleheader against the Yankees with travel, in which they split but had an emotional debut from Alek Manoah. Tonight against Cleveland they face a pitcher making his debut, Eli Morgan. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are putting Ryu on the mound, who is coming off one of his most dominant starts as a Jay. I wouldn’t trust the Jays bullpen right now, they have been overworked and understaffed, but Ryu should have a dominant night against the Cleveland batters, who significantly lag behind the Jays batters in every category. Jays ML wouldn’t be a bad idea and is better value at -160. However, I trust Ryu to hold the lead a lot more than I do the bullpen, 5 Inning ML it is.

For the rest of this series, Jays ML is also enticing, they miss having to face Shane Bieber and should be able to use the porch in left field to their advantage. 

Angels @ Athletics, -145 (Friday Night)

Shohei Ohtani gets the ball here after his start was pushed back a day. The Athletics will counter with southpaw Sean Manaea. Ohtani has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, with a 2.37 ERA to this point. That doesn’t scare me away from rolling with Oakland here. Ohtani has been close to lights out when he is pitching, but more often than not, he leaves the start early, putting the game in the hands of a mediocre Angels bullpen. The Athletics have been hitting the ball well lately and Sean Manaea is a competent starter. The Athletics are the better team here and I think they come out with the win.

Padres vs Astros (Saturday Afternoon)

Both teams have been equally good this year, but I can’t say the same about the pitching matchup. Slam Diego puts Yu Darvish and his 5-1 record, 1.75ERA, and 0.89WHIP up against Jake Odorizzi who is coming off injury and a stat line of 0-2, 10.13ERA, 1.63WHIP. I would think that this game is closer than the pitching matchup, but even still it’s too lopsided to not feel confident about the Padres. Both teams have strong offenses, and Darvish should be able to neutralize the Astros hitters in his own ballpark.  

Rays vs Phillies (Saturday Afternoon)

Normally I would like when Zach Wheeler takes the mound. Against the Rays, in Tampa, who are hot, not a chance. Ryan Yarbrough is no bum either, he’s been good but plays to contact, which at home for this Rays defense is a big plus. The Rays offense is one of the best in baseball right now, which will be hard for Zach Wheeler to beat. It should make for a great game, runs could be hard to come by, or plentiful, but in the end, the Rays should come out on top. 

Some Other Notes and Injury Updates

  • Some hot offenses you might want to back include the Braves, Twins, Athletics, and Blue Jays.
  • Cold offenses to think about fading include the Royals, Yankees, Mets, Brewers, Phillies, and Tigers.
  • No-hitter in baseball has been hotter than the Athletic’s Mark Canha in the last week. Over his last seven games, Canha has a wRC+ of 309 and is struck out less than 10% of the time.
  • Trevor Story was removed from the Rockies game vs the Mets on Thursday with some discomfort in his right elbow. He is day-to-day but elbow injuries are always worth monitoring. Story is expected to be highly sought after at the deadline. 
  • The Dodgers hope to activate Cody Bellinger on Saturday for their game against the Giants.
  • Marcel Ozuna, who has not gotten off to the start he and the Braves wanted, injured his hand on a slide earlier this week and will be out a month, give or take.