By: @IsbisterTom & @rozenwill
Welcome to theBRKDWN’s weekend MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Come back on Friday for the weekend picks.
All lines are provided by Bet365 & FiveThirtyEight. Time is in Eastern Standard.
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Last Week: 0-4, Season 39-25
Dodgers ML, Loss
Royals ML, Loss
Padres ML, Loss
White Sox ML, Loss
|Blue Jays @ Rays||White Sox @ Orioles||Royals @ Indians|
|Tigers @ Twins||Pirates @ Mets||Cardinals @ Cubs|
|Nationals @ Giants||Phillies @ Red Sox||Yankees @ Astros|
|Athletics @ Rangers||Braves @ Marlins||Orioles @ Angels|
|Angels @ Mariners||Reds @ Brewers||Rockies @ Padres|
Marlins +105 vs Braves (Friday, 7:05pm)
Once again, I don’t know why I am doing this to myself, but I am going to pick a game between the Marlins and Braves. In school, they taught us to eat healthily, avoid drugs, and not bet on Marlins and Braves baseball games. Something like that. Anyway, these are two inconsistent teams that also seem to stir up drama anytime they meet.
The Marlins have right-hander Zach Thompson going for them tonight. Thompson, a 27-year-old, has been terrific in a small sample size this year. He’s got an ERA and FIP below 2.30 and has a K/BB ratio close to 25%. This will be his second consecutive start against Atlanta after delivering a quality outing on the Fourth.
The Braves are on the road today, where their offense hasn’t been as good, and have yet to be able to find some consistency. The Marlins run differential indicates they are a little better than their record and some hitters in that Miami lineup are seeing the ball really well right now. I like Thompson and the Marlins to get the win at home.
Angels -135 @ Mariners (Friday, 10:10pm)
The Angels have had an up and down year, but they are riding a heater now. Over the last couple of weeks, this has been one of the best offenses in baseball. They’ve won 19 of 30 and have found themselves back over the .500 mark.
The Mariners sit four games over .500 at 46-42. They’ve had some luck getting there, and their run differential suggests they shouldn’t be as good, but either way, they are in a position not many expected them to be. The bad news is Marco Gonzales is pitching for them today. Gonzales, who has a xERA above 8 and a FIP above 5, may be the worst starter going today. The logic is simple here. Take a hot offense vs a bad pitcher. I’m riding with the Angels.
Mets -200 vs Pirates (Saturday, 7:10pm)
I’m surprised the line is only -200 here. Taijuan Walker has been an All-Star caliber pitcher for the Mets and has a WHIP well under one during the last 30 days, and is averaging over a strikeout per inning, which plays well against the lonely Pirates offense. JT Brubaker on the other hand has lost all but two starts, his ERA and WHIP aren’t bad for Pirates pitchers, but that’s a very low bar. The play here is really riding Taijuan Walker’s hot month and the dominant season he’s been able to put together. Both offenses are fairly matches, with the Mets taking the slight edge, especially in home runs. But like I said, Taijuan Walker.
Red Sox vs Phillies, Over 10.5 Runs (Saturday, 4:10pm)
A little shakeup from our Moneyline picks, the Red Sox and Phillies over 10.5 runs. The Red Sox are putting Martin Perez on the mound, who has a 3.89ERA. Meanwhile, the Phillies are going with Matt Moore who won’t go more than three innings, and their bullpen which has been the worst bullpen in the MLB. The Red Sox rely on the offense to get wins and against the Phillies pitchers it should be easy to muster up enough runs to hit eleven. The Phillies are also no slouch at the plate, lovers of the long ball. At Fenway Park, the balls should be flying, especially over that green monster. The over is an easy play here, and if you want a pick for it, Red Sox ML is your bonus play.