MLB Covering the Bases Weekly Betting Guide

By: @isbistertom & @rozenwill

Welcome to theBRKDWN’s weekend MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Come back on Friday for the weekend picks.

All lines are provided by Bet365 & FiveThirtyEight. Time is in Eastern Standard. 

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Last Week: 1-2, Season 39-21

Blue Jays ML, Loss
Astros ML, Postponed
Athletics ML, Loss
Dodgers ML, Win

Weekend Matchups

Padres @ PhilliesBrewers @ PiratesDodgers @ Nationals
Mets @ YankeesRays @ Blue JaysCubs @ Reds
Astros @ IndiansWhite Sox @ TigersMarlins @ Braves
Cardinals @ RockiesTwins @ RoyalsOrioles @ Angels
Giants @ Diamondbacks Red Sox @ Athletics Rangers @ Mariners

Betting Advice

Nationals +105 vs Dodgers  (Friday, 7:05pm)

Wow. I am actually going to pick against the Dodgers today. This really just comes down to backing a hot team with their ace going at home. The Nationals have been one of the best teams in baseball in recent weeks, and so have the Dodgers, but it’s hard to go against Max Scherzer. In the month of June, Max Scherzer had an ERA of 1.42. Julio Urias, who had a 4.85 ERA in June, is going for the Dodgers 

The Nats bats have been on fire too. In the last 14 days, they have an OPS+ of 135. Juan Soto didn’t have a normal Juan Soto April and May, but his bat has come alive as he’s started to hit well against lefties again. The Dodgers have won six in a row but given the White House visit today and the drama surrounding Trevor Bauer, I am not sure how focused this team will be. I like the Nationals to get the win.

Twins +105 @ Royals (Friday, 8:10pm)

Some matchups are between juggernauts like the Dodgers and Nationals. This is not it, not even close. Both teams are at the bottom of the AL Central, with almost identical 33 win records. The Twins just played the White Sox fairly well, and still got swept. The Royals haven’t won a game since June 22nd, a 9 game losing streak. At home, the Royals have an almost .500 record, but I’m going with recency bias and taking the Twins who have been making a slow comeback out of the basement. Part of that resurgence has been beating up on bad teams like the Rangers and Indians. With J.A. Happ on the mound, I’ll trust him and that 5.83 ERA and 1.45WHIP, that sounds silly, but go Twins, and the +105 odds help out here too. 

Padres @ Phillies (Saturday, 4:05pm)

The Friday matchup of this heavily favours the Phillies with Wheeler on the mound. Assuming the Phillies have their best shot at winning is that game. I’d be looking for a rebound on the Padres. With Yu Darvish on the mound against Zach Eflin, I’ll take the Padres all day. They have the advantage in every category, offensively and defensively, and with their best starter on the mound, the Phillies should have issues scoring, and even if they do, the Tatis Jr. and co will be able to get enough runs for the win. 

White Sox @ Tigers (Saturday, 4:10pm)

I’ve had fantastic luck betting against the Tigers, and specifically Tarik Skubal. With his 4-7 record with a 4.06ERA and 1.36WHIP, it’s easy to see why. One number that sticks out for me is his 94 strikeouts in 77.2 innings. The White Sox hitters won’t strike out at that same rate, forcing balls in play against the tigers, which should add to increase their on-base percentage. Dallas Keuchel is completely opposite to Skubal, he lives off creating bad contact, which once again works perfectly against the weaker Tiger hitters. The line shouldn’t be much beyond the -150 area for the White Sox, which will provide fantastic value. 

Some Other Notes and Injury Updates

  • Despite how good Kyle Schwarber has been the past couple of weeks, it is Joey Gallo who leads the majors in wRC+ in that span. 
  • Per FanGraphs, Cedric Mullins led all of baseball in WAR in the month of June. He slugged .720 while snagging seven bases.
  • Vlad Guerrero Jr, Max Muncy, Bryan Reynolds, Nick Castellanos, and Jesse Winker are the only qualified players to be slugging over .500 while getting on base at least 40% of the time.
  • The Dodgers said they still plan to start Trevor Bauer on Sunday. The Dodgers are in touch with the MLB offices and this situation could change quickly as the weekend progresses. 
  • Per Baseball Reference, Fernando Tatis and Max Muncy lead the majors in WAR despite each having DL stints.
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