MLB Covering the Bases Weekly Betting Guide

By: Tom Isbister @IsbisterTom, Will Rosenblatt @rozenwill

Welcome to theBRKDWN’s weekend MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Come back on Friday for the weekend picks.

All lines are provided by Bet365 & FiveThirtyEight. Time is in Eastern Standard. 

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Last Week: 3-0, Season 38-19

Braves ML, Win
Blue Jays ML, Win
Dodgers ML, Win

Weekend Matchups

Rockies @ BrewersPhillies @ MetsOrioles @ Blue Jays
Braves @ RedsNationals @ MarlinsYankees @ Red Sox
Angels @ RaysAstros @ TigersRoyals @ Rangers
Mariners @ White SoxIndians @ TwinsPirates @ Cardinals
Athletics @ GiantsCubs @ DodgersDiamondbacks @ Padres

Betting Advice

Blue Jays -225 vs Orioles (Friday, 7:07)

This is game two of a four-game set, the Blue Jays destroyed the Orioles 9-0 on Thursday and are looking to continue their win streak. A lot of times after a team gets blown out in this situation, a good team beats a bad team, the bad team tends to come back and put up a better effort, yet still loses. With Alec Manoah on the mound, he will come out hot after his ejection last start. The Blue Jays tend to play tight behind the rookie as well, really clamping down. Matt Harvey will be on the mound for the O’s. His 3-9 record and a  7.80ERA is bad, yet he’s the best the O’s got. There isn’t really much to say, the Jays are red hot, and the Orioles are ice cold. Toronto should game two of this series, with Ryu on the mound for game three, they should win that too. Maybe even all four, it wouldn’t give me any doubts. 

Astros -275 @ Tigers (Friday, 7:10pm)

For all the same reasons as the Jays game, the Astros should easily handle Detroit. Coming off a blowout win. Currently, on a 10 game win streak, they’ll send ace Framber Valdez to the mound against Wily Peralta. I know the line is -275 and that doesn’t provide much value, but to be fair the Tigers have no business winning this game. 

Bonus Play: Blue Jays & Astros Friday Night Parlay -105

I might be a little biased since these are both of my teams, but I really cannot see any way this goes tits up. Both teams coming off dominating the O’s and blowout wins, with one of their better starters on the mound, against one of the opponent’s worst. -105 is an easy risk for me to take in a parlay. 

Brewers -260 @ Rockies (Friday, 4:10pm)

I’ve had some success this year picking teams going for three wins in a row. The Brewers fit that bill here. Corbin Burnes is taking the mound for the Brewers. He’s tailed off a bit since that great start, but he hasn’t looked terrible. The Rockies offense isn’t good, doubly so when they are playing away from Coors Field. Colorado’s 2.6 runs/game on the road is dead last in the MLB.

The Brewers have won 20 of their last 30. They are in the middle of the playoff race, something the Rockies have been long gone from. I’d ride the Brewers here with everything pointing towards a strong series from Milwaukee

Athletics -110 @ Giants (Friday, 9:45pm)

I feel like I am flirting with fire with this game. The Giants have been playing well lately and they’re at home. With that being said, the Athletics should have good value here. Sean Manea has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in June, sporting an ERA that is almost below one earned run. Against left-handed starters this year, the Giants have been pretty average. Oakland is 20-13 on the road this year and hasn’t had trouble getting wins away from home. I like the Athletics here.

Dodgers vs Cubs (Saturday, 7:15)

Urias has been one of the most consistent pitchers for the Dodgers this season. When he is on the mound the Dodgers have won 2/3rds of his starts. Alec Mills is on the other side of this matchup. Sporting a 3-1 Record in 15GP, 5.18ERA, and 1.48WHIP. More of a bullpen day for the Cubs, whose bullpen is in the upper half of the league, it should provide the Dodgers with lots of different looks. Luckily for them, the bats should come out swinging after being on the other side of a combined no-hitter. It has been a tough week for the Dodgers, but I believe the consistency of Urias should provide them with enough confidence to squeak out a win at home.

Some Other Notes and Injury Updates

  • A knuckleballer, Mickey Jannis, got checked for spin-increasing substances. 
  • The Nationals and Phillies game is the first game in MLB history where both teams hit a 3-run home run and a grand slam, it ended 13-12 Nats.
  • Kyle Schwarber is hot at the plate, 8HR in his last 5 games. 
  • If the Astros sweep the Tigers, they will set a franchise record for longest win streak at 13.
  • Plakata has a new meaning this week, Vlad Guerrero Jr hit a ball so far it broke the window of a passing car.
  • Baltimore has lost 20 straight road games. 

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