MLB Covering the Bases Weekly Betting Guide

Tom Isbister @IsbisterTom

Welcome to theBRKDWN’s weekend MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Come back on Friday for the weekend picks.

All lines are provided by Bet365 & FiveThirtyEight. Time is in Eastern Standard. 

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Last Week: 3-1, Season 35-19

Angels ML, Win
Astros ML, Win
Brewers + Dodgers, Loss
Cubs ML, Win

Weekend Matchups

Athletics @ YankeesBlue Jays @ OriolesCardinals @ Braves
Mets @ NationalsPhilles @ GiantsReds @ Padres
Marlins @ CubsTwins @ RangersWhite Sox @ Astros
Indians @ PiratesRed Sox @ RoyalsBrewers @ Rockies 
Tigers @ AngelsDodgers @ DiamondbacksRays @ Mariners

Betting Advice

Braves -175 vs Cardinals (Friday, 7:20pm)

As Will said last week, never take the team Carlos Martinez is throwing against, granted he has a decent outing, only giving up 2 runs, but I’m continuing with this train of thought, fade Carlos Martinez. Especially against a team like Atlanta, and Max Fried, and on the road. The Braves at home vs RHP are batting above their season averages, I like that especially going up against a weaker pitcher. The Cardinals are significantly better against LHP, but with Max Fried, I wouldn’t worry too much, and not when they are on the road, they’re production takes a nosedive when it isn’t at home. I can’t see this going any other way besides a Braves win, the line seems to suggest that at -175, but I think that’s still a safe play. 

Blue Jays @ Orioles (Saturday, 4:05pm)

For Jays fans, the last week has been rough. Blown games left and right.  Missed calls all over the place. This weekend they finally get a bottom-feeding team for the first time all year. Rookie Alek Manoah faces a lineup similar to what he’s pitched against all year, a minor league roster. He has been very good in his four starts and I’d be confident in him against the O’s. Facing the Blue Jays hitters is Dean Kremer, who is winless on the year and has a 6.65ERA, I would expect the Jays hot bats to continue to dominate. So well in fact that it will make it difficult for the bullpen to blow it. I’m confident in a Jays win here, Friday with Robbie Ray, and hell even Sunday with Ryu. If you don’t have as much confidence in them as I do, Blue Jays to win at 5 or 7 innings is just fine too.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks (Saturday, 10:10pm)

For what it’s worth, the Diamondbacks aren’t on the road anymore, not that it was going to help them against the Dodgers who come in on a bit of a hot streak, and swept the Diamondbacks in a four-game set earlier this year. I think the Bauer game on Friday will be risky, too much controversy around ‘sticky stuff’ and you never know if Bauer will come out with a vengeance or lose his grip, no pun intended. Plus, betting the Saturday game you get Walker Buehler who is 6-0 on the year and will provide better value in the lines than any Bauer or Kershaw game will. I’m not sure quite what the line will be, probably really favoring the Dodgers, in the mid to upper -200 range. But that’s all par for the course, Buehler vs Peacock, Dodgers vs Dbacks. No matter what way you swing it, the Dbacks don’t have much hope, not after setting the road losing record.

Some Other Notes and Injury Updates

  • The Diamondbacks have set an MLB record with 23 straight road losses.
  • DeGrom has had the same amount of MRI’s done this year as runs he’s given up (4). The good news is that he is out and throwing. 
  • The Blue Jays have lost an MLB-worst, 10 games while leading after 7innings or later.
  • Jose Altuve is hot at the plate. Homering in 8 of his last 10 games. Helping the Astros lead baseball in run differential.
  • In honor of the White Sox playing the Astros, Tony La Russa once managed Dusty Baker. 
  • The Brewers are hitting for a modern-era worst .210avv, and still lead the NL Central.

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